Monsoon
Has Revived, But Keep an Eye on Weather
GS Paper III: Major Crops and Cropping Patterns, Issues Related to Agriculture,
Climate Change 
Introduction
The Southwest Monsoon (June–September) dictates the
trajectory of India's agricultural output, directly influencing Kharif crop
yields. In the 2026 season, a stark narrative of recovery unfolded as the
cumulative rainfall deficit plummeted from a critical 38% in June (and 22.8%
till July 15) to 11.5% by July-end, backed by a 2.4% monthly
surplus in July. This mid-season revival significantly narrowed the overall
Kharif acreage deficit from 20.8% in early July to 2.9% by the end of
the month. However, with an intensifying El Nino projected to persist
through the year, the stability of the standing Kharif crop and the upcoming
Rabi cycle remains strictly dependent on proactive supply-side management.
Dynamics
of Monsoon Revival and Kharif Sowing
The seasonal turnaround was driven by atmospheric shifts that
countered early-season drought risks,
Atmospheric Drivers and Low-Pressure Systems
(LPS):
·
In June,
despite a weak-to-moderate El Nino phase, zero rain-bearing Low-Pressure
Systems (LPS) developed, compared to the normal average of 3 systems across 11
active days.
·
In July,
atmospheric conditions reversed with 4 LPSs forming (against the normal
of 3), yielding 24 LPS-active days (against the normal of 14 days) and
defying the IMD’s initial forecast of below-normal precipitation.
Recovery in Crop
Acreage:
·
Late showers
post-mid-July facilitated delayed sowing of critical crops, including pulses,
soyabean, sesamum, and cotton, which had been severely lagging.
- The rain provided
life-saving moisture to early-sown crops facing moisture stress,
preventing stunted vegetative growth.
ü Input Availability:
Agri-input supply remained stable, with domestic production and imports of urea
being higher in April–June 2026 compared to the corresponding April–June 2025
period.
Persisting Climate Drivers: El Niño Strain on
Late-Kharif and Rabi Yields
A.
Intensifying
El Nino Conditions: Forecasted to turn into a "very strong" event
during September–October and persist through the following quarter. Anomalous
warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean disrupts normal trade winds,
significantly suppressing precipitation cycles across the Indian subcontinent.
ü During the 2015–16 "Godzilla" El Nino,
India experienced back-to-back drought years, causing agricultural growth to
drop sharply and triggering wide-scale agrarian distress across central India.
B.
IMD
Late-Monsoon Warning: Forecast of
below-normal rainfall for the entire second half of the monsoon season
(August–September). A deficit in this critical phase prevents the replenishment
of rainfed water bodies and reduces critical topsoil moisture levels needed
before the end of the monsoon.
ü In August 2023, India recorded its driest
August in over a century with a ~36% rainfall deficit, which rapidly depleted
soil moisture across rainfed belts in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
C.
Late-Kharif
Moisture Requirements: Standing
crops require critical rain spells in late August and early September to
prevent stunted growth, flower dropping, and severe yield loss. Without these
terminal showers, crops entering their grain-filling or pod-formation stages
face severe moisture stress.
ü Crops like pulses
(pigeon pea/tur), soyabean, sesamum, and cotton rely heavily on
late-monsoon showers; a lack of mid-to-late season rain leads to poor pod
filling in soyabean and boll shedding in cotton.
D.
Lagged
Impact on Rabi Season: Because El
Niño impacts manifest with a time lag, late-season rainfall deficits directly
threaten sub-soil moisture levels and reservoir storage critical for winter
Rabi crops. Inadequate residual moisture delays early seed germination, while
depleted reservoir levels severely limit canal and tube-well irrigation
capacity for winter crops.
ü Insufficient residual soil moisture and low
reservoir levels directly impair the acreage and yields of major winter crops
like wheat, mustard, and chickpea (chana) across northern and central
plains.
Strategic
Imperatives and Policy Interventions
A.
Proactive
Supply-Side Management: Continuous
tracking of food stocks, crop progress, and local supply chains to mitigate
food inflation. This requires leveraging real-time satellite imagery and market
intelligence to identify localized crop stress before harvest deficits
materialize.
ü Utilizing the Essential Commodities Act or
imposing temporary export restrictions and stock limits on sensitive
commodities (such as pulses or non-basmati rice) to maintain domestic
availability and stabilize retail price spikes during deficit periods.
B.
Agri-Input
Logistics: Sustaining smooth
fertilizer supply chains (such as urea) and deploying micro-irrigation tools.
Ensuring synchronized delivery of fertilizers and resilient seed varieties
prevents operational bottlenecks during delayed planting windows.
ü Optimizing point-of-sale supply chains under the PM-PRANAM
/ PM Kisan Samridhi Kendra network to ensure timely access to urea, while
promoting Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) drip systems to
maximize water-use efficiency under moisture stress.
C.
Climate
Contingency Planning: Issuing
targeted agricultural advisories and arranging protective supplemental
irrigation for high-risk zones. Granular, district-level weather forecasting
allows farmers to shift toward short-duration or drought-tolerant crop
varieties mid-season.
ü Deploying weather-based district advisories through
the Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) and mobilizing farm ponds or check
dams under MGNREGS to provide life-saving farm-level protective
irrigation during prolonged dry spells.
D.
Rabi Season
Preparedness: Implementing early water-budgeting measures in major
reservoirs to safeguard upcoming winter sowings. Because El Niño's impacts
often carry a time lag, preserving surface water storage and residual sub-soil
moisture is vital for winter crop germination.
ü Central and
State Water Commissions rationing canal discharges early from major dams (e.g.,
in the Bhakra or Indira Gandhi Canal networks) to prioritize essential
human drinking needs and critical Rabi crop sowings over non-essential seasonal
uses.
Conclusion
While the mid-season rainfall surge prevented a severe Kharif
downturn, the persistent threat of an intensifying El Nino underscores the
structural fragility of rainfed agriculture. Navigating future climate shocks
requires transitioning from reactive relief to proactive supply-side
management, precision irrigation, and climate-resilient farming models to
ensure long-term food security and macroeconomic stability.
Question
"Proactive supply-side management is essential to
buffer against lag effects of macro-climatic disruptions on food
inflation." Elaborate on the policy measures required to safeguard both
Kharif and upcoming Rabi production from climate anomalies. (10 Marks, 150
Words)
Introduction
Climate anomalies like El Nino
disrupt agricultural cycles, triggering delayed food inflation through
supply-side shocks. Mitigating these risks requires proactive intervention
across both monsoon (Kharif) and winter (Rabi) cropping seasons.
Lag Effect on Reservoirs & Rabi Sowing
Climatic disruptions exhibit a 1–2-month
atmospheric lag that extends into autumn, leading to crucial second-order
impacts,
1.
Depleted Reservoirs: Below-normal late-monsoon
rain reduces storage across major river basin reservoirs, drastically limiting
surface irrigation for winter crops.
2. Soil Moisture Loss &
Thermal Stress: Dry spell persistence degrades soil moisture and
elevates early winter temperatures.
3. Impact on Crop Planting: Higher terminal heat during
early Rabi causes lower germinability and reduced acreage.
- The persistent El
Nino of 2023–24 depleted major southern reservoirs, severely delaying Rabi
sowing for wheat, mustard, and pulses, which fuelled localized inflation in
early 2024.
Supply-Side Stabilization & Agromet Governance
1.
Targeted Stock & Supply Chain
Management:
Buffer Stocking: This mechanism allows the government to cool
down rising market prices by injecting reserves from the Food Corporation of
India (FCI) during lean production periods. By targeting high-deficit regions
directly, it keeps speculative hoarding in check and maintains affordable
prices for consumers.
B.
Calibrated Trade Tariffs: Lowering import duties during
domestic shortfalls makes essential food items cheaper to bring in from
international markets. Conversely, raising tariffs during bumper harvests
protects local farmers from being undercut by cheaper imports.
C. Input Availability: Pre-positioning fertilizer
stocks (e.g., Urea, DAP) prevents input supply bottlenecks during narrow sowing
windows. Ensuring
fertilizers are stored near agricultural hubs before the season begins prevents
panic buying and logistics delays when planting starts. This guarantees that
farmers can apply nutrients at critical growth stages without facing artificial
shortages or price gouging.
- Extending zero-duty pulse imports (tur and urad)
alongside OMSS wheat releases mitigated severe retail inflation during
climate-distressed seasons.
2. Dynamic Agromet Advisories (IMD Integration):
Hyper-local Decision Support: IMD’s Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) provides district-level micro-forecasts. The service translates weather data into actionable farm management advice, helping farmers decide when to irrigate, fertilize, or harvest. These timely updates reduce crop damage from sudden climatic anomalies and optimize overall agricultural productivity.
Crop Switching: Real-time weather data enables farmers to pivot to short-duration, drought-tolerant, or climate-resilient varieties (e.g., shifting from paddy to coarse cereals/millets during late rain onset).
ü
Advisories
issued during erratic Kharif monsoons prompted farmers in rainfed regions to
shift to short-duration pulses and oilseeds, mitigating total output losses.
Conclusion
Shielding
Kharif and Rabi outputs from macro-climatic disruptions requires transforming
supply management from a reactive emergency response into a structural buffer.
Integrating predictive meteorology with agile trade policies ensures long-term
food security and price stability.