STATE OF WORLD POPULATION REPORT – INTERNATIONAL
News: UN
population report: Key takeaways for India and the world
What's in the news?
● India is now the most
populous country in the world, having overtaken China
in population, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) said in its State of
World Population (SOWP) report, ‘8 Billion Lives, Infinite Possibilities’,
released on April 19.
Important highlights in the report:
1. Composition of age group:
● The
UNFPA has said the population of the
world is 8,045 million, of which the largest share (65%) is of people
between the ages of 15 and 64 years, followed by those in the 10-24 years group
(24%). 10 percent of the population is above 65 years of age.
2. Regional population level:
● According
to the UN’s 2022 report, the world’s two
most populous regions are Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, with 2.3 billion
people, representing 29 percent of the global population.
● Central
and Southern Asia, with 2.1 billion (26 percent).
● China
and India accounted for the largest populations in these regions, with more
than 1.4 billion each in 2022.
● Central
and Southern Asia is expected to become the most populous region in the world
by 2037.
3. Future predictions:
● Earlier
UN reports had said that the population growth in South Asia will begin to
decline before 2100.
● The
latest UN projections suggest that the global population could grow to around
8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.
4. Global epicenters in population growth:
● More
than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries — the
Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan,
the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.
● Countries
of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to continue growing through 2100 and to
contribute more than half of the global population increase anticipated through
2050.
5. Decrease in rate of global population growth:
● The
2023 report has said that while numbers will continue to grow for several
decades, latest projections suggest that the rate of global population growth
has fallen, and has been at less than 1 percent since 2020.
● This
is largely due to declining fertility;
around two thirds of people live in a country or area with a total fertility
rate at or below 2.1 children per woman (widely considered the “replacement
fertility” rate, also called “zero-growth fertility” rate). In 1950 the global
fertility rate stood at 5.
6. Migration trends:
● The
UN has said that already 60% of the
world’s population lives in a region where the fertility rate is below
replacement level, up from 40% in 1990.
● It
is international migration that is now the driver of growth in many countries,
with 281 million people living outside
their country of birth in 2020.
● Migration
has also occurred due to war, famines, and other catastrophes, it has pointed
out.
● South Asia
clocks some of the highest emigration trends, according to the report, with India
seeing an estimated net outflow of 3.5 million between 2010 and 2021.
● Pakistan
has the highest net flow of migrants of 16.5 million during the same period.
7. Birth rate global level:
● Despite
the continuing decline in the average number of births per woman, the total
annual number of births has remained stable at around 140 million since the
late 1980s “due to the youthful age distribution of the global population”, the
UN said in an earlier report.
● In
2021, 134 million babies were born worldwide. In the future, the number of
newborns is expected to slightly increase to reach 138 million annually between
2040 and 2045, despite the continuous decline in the average number of births
per woman.
● In
2021, most births worldwide occurred in
the two most populous regions—Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
8. Contribution of life expectancy to global growth:
● One
of the reasons for population growth globally flagged by the UNFPA has been
that of increasing life expectancy.
● Fertility
rates have been dropping in various parts of the world, as have mortality rates
all over the world, with better access to health care and improving standards
of living. This also means that parts of the world, such as Japan, have a rapidly ageing population.
● The
2023 report finds that life expectancy
among men now stands at 71 years while among women it stands at 76 years.
● Globally,
life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of almost 9 years since
1990, the UN said in its 2022 report.
● Further
reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of
around 77.2 years globally in 2050. The share of the global population aged 65
years or above is projected to rise from 10 per cent in 2022 to 16 per cent in
2050.
● By
2050, the number of persons aged 65 years and above is expected to be more than
double that of 5year olds and the same as 12year olds, the UN has said.
● Once
fertility rates drop in high fertility regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, the
global population will start to decline.
India's position in the world report:
1. Most populous country:
● The
UN report states that India now has 1,428.6 million people and is the most
populous country in the world, outstripping China’s population.
2. Population composition:
● As
much as 68% of India’s population
belongs to the 15-64 years category, and 26% in the 10-24 years group,
making India one of the youngest countries in the world.
3. Decreasing trend of Fertility rate:
● The
fertility rate in India has been steadily dropping. The National Family Health
5 Survey (2019-21) found that India attained a Total Fertility Rate of 2.0 for the first time, less than the
replacement level of 2.1, falling from 2.2 in NFHS 4 (2015-16).
● India’s
growth rate stood at 2.3 percent in 1972, which has dropped to less than 1 per
cent now.
● In
this period, the number of children each Indian woman has during her lifetime
has come down from about 5.4 to less than 2.1 now. This means that we have
attained the Replacement Fertility Rate, at which a population exactly replaces
itself from one generation to the next.
4. Contraceptive usage:
● The
increased use of contraceptive
methods, spacing of pregnancies, access to health care and the impetus to
family planning, besides increasing wealth and education, has contributed to
the rate of growth of population slowing.
5. Life expectancy level:
● Life
expectancy for men in India is the
same as the global life expectancy of 71
years, while it is marginally lower for women at 74 years.
Causes of high population growth:
1. The Decline in the Death Rate:
● At
the root of overpopulation is the difference between the overall birth rate and
death rate in populations.
● If
the number of children born each year equals the number of adults that die,
then the population will stabilize.
2. Immigration:
● Many
people prefer to move to developed countries like the US, UK, Canada, and
Australia, where the best facilities are available in terms of medical,
education, security, and employment. The result is that those people settle
over there, eventually making those places overcrowded.
3. Early marriage:
● Child
marriage is one of the major social problems of our country. Even today, a
large number of boys and girls are married at an age when they are not prepared
for family responsibilities either socially, emotionally, physically and
mentally. Marriage at unripe age also leads to higher mortality rate of
infants.
4. Religious reasons:
● The
people who are conservative and orthodox are opposed to the use of family
planning measures.
● Women
in such families are not allowed to take part in family planning because they
are not supposed to go against the wishes of God.
5. Compulsions of poverty:
● Many
poor parents produce more children not because they do not have the knowledge
about contraceptives, but because they require children to assist them in
earning their livelihood.
● It
is clear from the fact that there is an unending number of child labourers in
our country.
6. Poor Contraceptives Use:
● A
study by the World Health Organization
(WHO) shows that women aged between 16
and 49 used at least one form of contraceptive are 43% in underdeveloped
countries, which leads to higher birth rates.
7. Technological Advancement in Fertility Treatment:
● Today
there are effective medicines that
can increase the chance of conception and lead to a rise in the birth rate.
Moreover, due to modern techniques, pregnancies today are far safer.