SLOWING TRADE MOMENTUM - ECONOMY

News: Explained/ What is affecting trade momentum

 

What is in the news?

       Recently, Mired in a slowing economy, inflationary setting and tighter monetary controls worldover, India’s merchandise exports shrunk 12.7% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis to $34.66 billion in April.

 

Reasons for the slowing trade momentum:

1. Russia - Ukraine war:

       Due to the war between the two countries, the global supply chain was affected as these two countries are the major exporters of fuel and food products.

2. Tighter monetary control:

       Due to high inflation, most of the countries followed tighter monetary control measures which reduced the liquidity in the market and slowed down the trade momentum.

3. COVID 19:

       In the Covid 19 times, most of the primary and secondary activities were slowed down and it disrupted the global supply chain and thus the trade momentum.

4. Collapse of financial institutions:

       Financial instability because of the collapse of several financial institutions like the Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in advanced economies has affected the trade activities.

5. China's slow down:

       China is considered the global manufacturing powerhouse; The slowdown in manufacturing activities in China has disrupted the global manufacturing supply chain and thus trade activities.

 

Measures taken by India to protect its trade momentum from global slow down:

1. Atma Nirbhar package:

       Special economic and comprehensive package under AtmaNirbhar Bharat including measures taken by RBI amounting to about Rs. 27.1 lakh crore which is more than 13 percent of India’s GDP– to combat the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and to revive economic growth.

2. Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme:

       Under the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme around 3 lakh crores has been sanctioned to strengthen the MSME sector in the country.

       ECLGS scheme has been extended to 26 stressed sectors identified by the Kamath Committee.

3. Production Linked Incentive scheme:

       Government has started this scheme to improve the production capabilities of the industries in the selected sector. So far 14 sectors were identified by the government to increase the production capacity.

4. National Infrastructure Pipeline:

       National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) is the Government of India’s roadmap to improve the infrastructure facilities by 2024-25 by spending 100 lakh crores in infrastructure projects.

5. Increased capital expenditure:

       Government has increased the capital expenditure to 3.5% of the GDP (10 lakh crore) to improve the capacity of the economy.

6. Free trade agreements:

       To correct the disrupted supply chain, India has made Free trade agreements with UAE and Australia;

       Due to this FTA India's exports have grown over 12.5%.

 

WAY FORWARD:

1. Alternative supply chain: India along with other important countries should create an alternate supply chain to make sure that disruption in one supply chain doesn't affect the overall supply chain.

       EG: Alternating with the China dominant supply chain is a better way.

2. Companies friendly policies:

       Government should make and sustain business friendly policies; This ease of doing business will increase the efficiency of the production houses.

3. Incentives to global investors:

       Government should create a business friendly investment environment to increase the foreign investment into the country that will increase the production and trade momentum.

4. Widening the PLI scheme:

       More sectors can be brought within the Production Linked Incentive scheme in order to give incentives to increase the overall production activity.

5. Thrust to MSME sector:

       Government should give more financial and technological assistance to the MSME Industries.

       MSME sectors contribute 45% to the overall export of the country.