POPULATION BOMB - ECONOMIC
News: The
population bomb that never was
What's in the news?
● Researchers
from the Earth4All Initiative have released a report titled ‘People and Planet,
21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards
Within Planetary Boundaries’.
Key findings of the report:
1. “Too Little, Too Late”:
● In
the first scenario, called “Too Little, Too Late”, researchers predicted that
if economic development continues as it has in the last five decades, the world’s population would peak at 8.6
billion in 2050, roughly 25 years from now and decline to 7 billion by
2100.
2. “The Giant Leap”:
● In
the second scenario, called “The Giant Leap”, the researchers concluded that
the population will peak at 8.5 billion by 2040 – a decade sooner than 2050 –
but then rapidly decline to around 6 billion by 2100.
● This
will be due to our investments in
poverty alleviation, gender equity, education and health, ameliorating
inequality, and food and energy security.
3. Optimistic than bomb:
● The
report also clarified that these population predictions are more optimistic than
the kind of historic fear-mongering and regressive development policies
engendered by the ‘population bomb’ metaphor.
● It
also stated that population alone was
never the problem for sustainability, nor will it be for the climate crisis.
Causes of rising population:
● High
birth rate and low death rate.
● Early marriage practice
- causing longer span of fertility and reproductive activity.
● Illiteracy among females
causing troubles on reproductive health care.
● Rising
poverty rates lead to the belief that having more children will boost their
family income.
● Son-meta preference
- leading to the prevailing social pressure of having more male children along
with age-old social norms such as sons are breadwinners and caretakers for the
parents in their old age.
● Lack of awareness on
family planning.
● Poor contraceptive use.
● Agricultural
advancements leading to food security of the family and nation.
● Safer
pregnancies resulting from technological advancements.
● Improved
management of epidemics and better disaster management.
● Religious
attitude towards family planning.
Positive impacts of rising population:
● Economic
growth by means of increasing consumption.
● Increasing
availability of labor which paves
way for the phase of demographic dividend in India.
● Innovations
- Historical examples suggest that scarcity leads to several innovations
through research and development. Example:
Green Revolution enhances agricultural production resulting from the
rising food scarcity across the world in 1950-60s.
Negative impacts of rising population:
● Rising unemployment
and under-employment.
● Inadequate resources
trapping poor into poverty.
● Poor standards of living
such as lack of housing, food insecurity.
● Rising
inequality in income, land and several other resources.
● Increasing
expenditure on social welfare programmes.
● Rising dependency rate
by increasing the ageing population - Due to fertility drops and lifespans rise
globally.
● Environmental
degradation resulting from depletion of natural resources by rising population.
● Dangers
of conflicts and wars through the
cause of instability in the society through the cases of starvation and famine.
Government Initiatives:
1.
India was the first country in the world to begin a population control program in 1952. It emphasized the use of
natural devices for family planning.
2.
In 1965 (Third Five Year Plan), the Family Planning Department was
established. The sterilization techniques for both men and women introduced in
India.
3.
The First National Population Policy
(Fifth Five Year Plan) was started in 1976. During this period, the age of
marriage for boys and girls was increased to 21 and 18 years respectively. The
forced sterilization was also introduced during this period, which was later
given up subsequently after criticisms.
4.
The Second National Population policy
was introduced in 2000 with a policy framework for achieving goals and
prioritising strategies during the next decade to meet the reproductive and
child health needs of the people of India along with the target to achieve the
net replacement level (Total fertility rate).
● It
aims to control high population growth rate.
● It
also aims to stabilize the population by
2045.
● It
plans to bring the total fertility rate (TFR) to a replacement level of 2.1 by
2010.
● It
sets up the National Commission on
Population with the Prime Minister as Chairman and Chief Minister of states
as members.
5.
The National Population Stabilization
Fund was created in 2005 to support policies on population and reproductive
and health care.
6.
The Mission Parivar Vikas, 2017 was
launched to reduce fertility levels in 145 high focus districts having high
fertility rates in the country.
Measures to control population:
● Late
marriages.
● Moral
self restraint.
● Increasing awareness
among the population towards population control.
● Access
to reproductive and maternal health care.
● Women Empowerment
- Increasing literacy, education and awareness among women.
● Increasing access to
modern methods of population control such as contraceptives.
● Economic development
- Increasing skills and jobs offering economic growth which reduces poverty,
thus ultimately resulting in reduced population growth.
● Urbanisation
and the concept of nuclear energy needs to be enhanced.
● Societal changes
- Change in attitude towards male preferences.
WAY FORWARD:
1. Family welfare approach:
● We
need to move from a family planning approach to a family welfare approach.
● Enhancing
focusing on empowering men and women in being able to make informed choices
about their fertility, health and well-being.
2. Making population productive:
● It
is not about whether the population is large or small; it is about whether it
is healthy, skilled and productive.
● Skills are important,
but so is economic planning that ensures good jobs, agricultural productivity,
etc.
3. Address the issue of ageing:
● Estimates
show that 12% of India’s total
population by 2025 is going to be the elderly. Every fifth Indian by 2050
will be over the age of 65.
● Need
to figure out how to address ageing in the context of changing families and the
nature of state support in India and create conditions in which the elderly
population can have a healthy and happy life.
4. Invest in youths:
● India
certainly has the capacity to tap into
the potential of our youth population.
● There
is a brief window of opportunity, which is only there for the next few decades.
● India
needs to invest in adolescent well-being
right away, if we want to reap the benefits.
● It
is equally important to ensure good and quality education to the girls along
with improving employment opportunities for young women and increasing the
female employment rate.
● Otherwise,
our demographic dividend could turn easily into a demographic disaster.
5. Changing from population control to population
policy:
● India
needs to change our discourse around population policy. Although we use the
term population policy, population control still remains a part of our
dialogue.
● India
needs to align population policy towards
reproductive health for individuals.
● India
needs to orient the population policy towards enhancing population as resources
for India’s development, and change the mindset to focus on ensuring that the
population is happy, healthy and productive.
India
needs to adopt population control measures. But the focus should be on strengthening public health infrastructure
and raising awareness about the need for population control.