ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH CEASEFIRE DEAL – INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal – INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

NEWS: A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon came into effect on Wednesday. Why did Israel agree to this deal? And what does this mean for the Israel-Lebanon frontier, and the region at large?

WHAT’S IN THE NEWS?

Features of the Ceasefire Agreement

  • Mimics UNSC Resolution 1701

·         Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River, Israel south of the Blue Line.

·         Lebanese Army is the only armed force allowed between the two.

·         Both forces have 60 days to withdraw to their respective positions.

  • New Tripartite+ Mechanism

·         Includes the United States and France in oversight, alongside Lebanon, Israel, and UNIFIL.

·         Agreement allows Hezbollah to remain armed north of the Litani River.

  • Israel’s Conditional Right to Strike

·         Israel reserves the right to strike if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire, a condition rejected by the Lebanese government.

Reasons Behind Israel’s Agreement

·         Focus on Iran Shifting military attention from Hezbollah to broader threats, especially Iran.

·         Replenishment of Resources Provides the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) a “breather” to regroup and resupply.

·         Separation of Fronts Aims to end the two-front war by neutralizing the Hezbollah front while focusing on Gaza.

Internal Pressures

·         Disagreements within Israel’s civil-military framework:

      • Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF leadership advocated for the ceasefire.
      • Far-right ministers and northern Israeli communities opposed the ceasefire.

Strategic Considerations: Israel's historical experience in Lebanon indicates prolonged military presence would strengthen Hezbollah domestically.

Hezbollah’s Continued Strength: Despite losses, Hezbollah maintained significant firepower, forcing Israel into a ceasefire after a symbolic advance to the Litani River.


Implications for the Israel-Lebanon Frontier

  • Security Dynamics Post-October 7

·         Israeli perceptions of security have been deeply shaken, leading to aggressive responses in both Gaza and Lebanon.

·         International criticism mounts, including UN accusations of “genocide” and ICC actions against Netanyahu.

  • New Status Quo Resembling 2006

·         Similarities with the aftermath of the 2006 Lebanon conflict:

      • Lebanese Army controls buffer zone.
      • Hezbollah remains entrenched north of Litani.
  • Western Involvement

·         US and France’s role limited to ceasefire oversight, with no commitment of combat troops.

Regional Implications

  1. Iran’s Strategic Calculations

·         Hezbollah’s acceptance of US presence reflects Tehran’s influence and broader geopolitical strategies.

·         Iran continues its rapprochement with Arab neighbors and signals willingness to engage with the US for sanctions relief.

  1. Israel’s Regional Military Strategy

·         Freed from the Lebanon front, Israel can now focus on:

      • Hamas in Gaza.
      • Iranian proxies in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
  1. Unresolved Conflict in Lebanon

·         The fundamental causes of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict persist, with no immediate prospects for long-term stability.

India’s Response to the Ceasefire Agreement

  1. Welcoming the Ceasefire

·         The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) expressed support for the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

·         Reaffirmed India’s consistent stance on the need for de-escalation and restraint.

·         Hoped the ceasefire would lead to peace and stability in the region.

  1. Call for Dialogue and Diplomacy

·         India emphasized the importance of returning to diplomatic solutions to resolve conflicts.

·         Encouraged both parties to engage in dialogue for long-term peace.

Concerns for Indian Nationals and UN Peacekeepers

  1. Safety of Expatriates

·         The conflict posed risks to Indian expatriates in both Lebanon and Israel.

·         India had consistently called for the cessation of hostilities to ensure their safety.

  1. Impact on UNIFIL Personnel

·         India expressed concern over increasing Israeli attacks on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which includes a significant Indian contingent.

·         On October 28, India and Spain jointly condemned these attacks during Spanish President Pedro Sanchez’s visit.