INDUS WATER TREATY - INTERNATIONAL
News: India sends notice to Pakistan to amend 1960
Indus Water Treaty
What is in the news?
● India
announced that it wants to modify the
62-year-old Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan, citing what it called
Pakistan’s “intransigence” in resolving disputes over the Kishenganga and Ratle
hydropower projects, both in Jammu and Kashmir.
Indus Water Treaty:
● The
Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in
Karachi in 1960.
● According
to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India - the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was
given to India
● The
control over the water flowing in three
“western” rivers of India - the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to
Pakistan.
● The treaty gives India
20% of the water from the Indus River System and the rest 80% to Pakistan.
● Uses of Western Rivers by
India:
○ The
treaty allows India to utilize the waters of western rivers for limited irrigation use and non-consumptive
use for such applications as power generation, navigation etc. Thus, India
can generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river projects (without the
storage of waters) on the western rivers, subject to specific criteria for
design and operation.
○ The
treaty allowed India to have a minimum
storage level on the western rivers - meaning it can store up to 3.75 MAF
of water for conservation and flood storage purposes.
● A
Permanent Indus Commission was set
up by the United Nations for resolving any disputes that may arise in water
sharing.
Significance:
1. Treaty crucial for the peace and development:
● The
Treaty has been a profoundly important international agreement in support of
peace and development for South Asia and has been hailed as one of the most successful transboundary water management
treaties in the world.
2. Dispute Resolution Process:
● According
to Article IX of the treaty that
deals with the “Settlement of Differences and Disputes”, there are three
possible steps to decide on objections raised by either side.
○ Working within the
“Permanent Indus Commission” (PIC) of the Indian and
Pakistani delegation of water experts.
○ Consulting
a World Bank-appointed neutral expert.
○ Setting
up a court process to adjudicate the case through the World Bank and the Permanent Court of Arbitrage (PCA).
● India
has held that each step must be fully exhausted before both sides agree to
moving on to the next step, Pakistan had moved on without waiting for India’s
concurrence.
Reasons behind calls for renegotiating of the Indus Water Treaty:
1. Unequal sharing of water:
● Pakistan has been
allocated ~ 80% of the Indus basin waters.
● Experts
have termed this the most generous water sharing treaty. It is the only
water-sharing pact in the world that compels the upper riparian State to defer
to the interests of the downstream State.
2. India's genuine infrastructure concerns:
● It
prevents India from building any storage
systems on the western rivers.
● Even
though the treaty lays out that under certain exceptional circumstances storage
systems can be built, Pakistan deliberately stops any such effort.
● The
extensively technical nature of the treaty allows Pakistan to stall legitimate
Indian projects.
3. Issues of climate change:
● The
basin’s size and volume is getting altered by climate change and this
alteration is going to intensify in future.
● There
would be instances of more
high-intensity rainfall as well as long stretches of scanty rainfall. There
would be a high influx of water due to glacial melt.
● The
contribution of glaciers in the Indus basin is higher than in the Ganges or
Brahmaputra basins.
● A
change in the flow conditions may classify as ‘change of circumstances’ which can justify renegotiation or
termination in the future.
4. Standing Committee on Water Resources 12th report
recommendations:
● The
Government of India should renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty of 1960 with
Pakistan in the light of present-day challenges such as climate change, global warming and environmental impact assessment.
● There
is a need to establish some kind of institutional structure or legislative
framework to address the impact of climate change on water availability in the
Indus basin and other challenges which are not covered under the Treaty.
● It
also recommended that the canal systems
in Punjab and Rajasthan be repaired to increase their water carrying capacity.
India's Problem:
1. Unilateral decision of Pakistan:
● India
also protested Pakistan’s “unilateral” decision to approach a court of
arbitration at The Hague.
2. Renegotiation of Indus Water Treaty:
● India
is calling for modifications to the treaty as per Article XII (3) of the IWT that deals with the “final provisions” of
the treaty.
● The
decision to issue notice to Pakistan, with a request for a response within 90
days, is a major step and could lead to the unraveling and renegotiation of the
water sharing treaty.
● In
October 2022, the World Bank had appointed neutral expert Michael Lino, and
another expert Sean Murphy, as Chairman of the Court of Arbitration, and
convened meetings with Indian and Pakistani officials in November to “handover”
the process.
Pakistan's Problem:
● Pakistan
approaches the Permanent Court of Arbitrage at The Hague over two hydropower
projects in Jammu & Kashmir; Indian officials say Pakistan stance is
against the agreed mode of dispute resolution.
Can the Indus Water Treaty be rejected by India on a
unilateral basis?
● Article XII (4) of the
Indus Water Treaty notes that,
"provisions of this Treat shall continue in force until terminated by a
duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.”
Thus the treaty doesn’t allow for
unilateral termination.
● Article 62 of the Vienna
Convention on Law of Treaties (VCLT), 1969
provides that even a ‘fundamental change of circumstances that are ‘not
foreseen by the parties‘ at the time of conclusion of treaty is not a valid
ground for termination of treaty unless certain conditions are fulfilled.
○ Legal
experts argue that terrorist attacks do not fall under this exception. Although
India is not a party to this convention, the Supreme Court of India has recognized
the customary status of the Convention. (Pakistan is a signatory, but hasn’t
ratified the Convention).
○ Thus,
unilateral termination will impact
India’s international standing as a responsible power that always supports
a Rules-based International Order.
This will weaken India’s case for permanent representation at the UNSC.
● Other issues:
Moreover, there are certain other downsides of unilateral termination such as
○ India
has a water sharing agreement with Bangladesh.
Termination of treaty will raise anxiety in Bangladesh and impact bilateral
relations.
○ China,
an ‘all-weather ally’ of Pakistan, will certainly use diversion of Brahmaputra
waters to threaten India.
○ There
is not enough infrastructure to store/divert waters of Western Rivers to starve
Pakistan of water.
WAY FORWARD:
● India
should take steps to completely utilize
its entitlement of waters of Western Rivers. The infrastructure to utilize
the waters has remained under-developed in J&K.
● Some
experts suggest that in case of escalation of hostilities by Pakistan in
future, India can suspend the meetings of the Permanent Commission. If the
first state of dispute redressal is not functional, the subsequent two steps of
3-tier dispute redressal don’t kick in. Thus India can use this as a pressure tactic on Pakistan.
● India
should explore the possibility of using
climate change as a ‘change in circumstances’ to initiate conversation on
renegotiation of the IWT. This will also put pressure on Pakistan. Last
year Pakistan was devastated by the intense rainfall and flash floods.
● Experts
in India and Pakistan should assess
how much of the waters in the Eastern and Western rivers are snow or rain-fed
within their respective territories. Such estimates would add to the accuracy of each side’s dependence on
the other in sharing the waters of these rivers.