INDIA'S ROLE IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE WAR – INTERNATIONAL
News: Could India be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine?
What's in the news?
● In
his first visit to Moscow since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, External
Affairs Minister S Jaishankar conveyed that India “strongly advocates a return
to dialogue and diplomacy” and is on the side of “peace, respect for
international law and support for the UN Charter”.
● This has been India’s stance since the beginning of the war that has upended global order and is now threatening to push the world towards recession.
Impacts of Russia-Ukraine war on Global South:
● The
Indian position articulated by Jaishankar had a new element - he positioned
India’s request from the vantage point of the “Global South”.
● The Global South refers to the developing and less developed countries in Latin America, Asia, Africa and Oceania. Jaishankar said this region is “feeling the pain acutely” due to food, fertilizer and fuel shortages.
Impacts of Russia-Ukraine war:
● The
Black Sea region, which includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, is one of the
world’s six food baskets. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter while
Ukraine is sixth on the list.
● Together,
the two warring countries produce 12 percent of all food calories traded
globally; control 29 per cent of global wheat exports, 19 percent of maize
exports, and 78 percent of sunflower oil exports.
● Russia
is also the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, the second-leading
supplier of potassium fertilizers and the third-largest exporter of phosphorus
fertilizers.
● Some 50 countries depend on Russia-Ukraine for their food supply, particularly for wheat, maize and sunflower oils. The majority of these are poor and import-dependent countries in Asia and Africa.
Modi's message:
● Prime
Minister Modi conveyed to President Putin in Samarkand in September, this is
not an era of war.
● The
global economy is simply too inter-dependent for a significant conflict
anywhere not to have major consequences elsewhere.
● We
are seeing a conflict that is coming on top of severe stresses created by two
years of Covid.
● The Global South, especially, is feeling this pain very acutely. India, therefore, strongly advocates a return to dialogue and diplomacy.
India's stand:
● India
has once again conveyed its disapproval of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
without condemning Russian actions explicitly.
● India’s
position that the respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of states
is an essential element of the international order has been perceived as a
euphemism for India conveying to Moscow that it has violated these basic norms.
● India is positioning itself as a neutral player that can mediate between the two warring sides.
Why is India regarded as the best mediator?
1. Neutral player:
● As
India has walked the diplomatic tightrope, it has won credibility on both sides
as a mediator between them.
2. Successful diplomatic involvement earlier:
● Preventing
the attack on the nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia In eastern Ukraine.
● During
the Black Sea grain shipment, discussions to intervene with Russia.
3. Leader of Global South:
● Mexico
had suggested that the PM of India, Pope Francis and the UN Secretary-General
should mediate the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
4. Good relations with Moscow and the West:
● India
can use this unique leverage to put pressure on Russia to end its war in
Ukraine.
5. Geopolitical aspirations:
● Peace-making might help India gain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
Challenges for India as a mediator:
● In
recent decades, India has sought to mediate in affairs closer home, but has
burnt its fingers - like in Sri Lanka when it was going through a civil war.
● To
play the role of mediator in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, India needs to play a proactive
role as follows.
1. Knowing the dynamics of the region:
● India
needs to have an understanding of the dynamics within Russia and Ukraine, and
Russia and the European players, including Russia’s neighbours Moldova,
Finland, and Poland.
● The
dynamic between Ukraine and European partners also has to be understood well.
And, of course, what Russia wants in the end, and what are the shared interests
of NATO, Europe and the US.
2. Experience of negotiating the conflict:
● Indian
diplomats have effectively negotiated in bilateral and multilateral formats,
but negotiating in a crisis is a different question.
● In
the early 1950s, India had played a role throughout the Korean War, proposing
the creation of a commission to facilitate the repatriation of prisoners.
● Despite
initial resistance from China and Russia, India’s resolution was accepted in
December 1952 at the UN General Assembly, and the Neutral Nations Repatriation
Committee was set up with India at the helm.
3. Risk-taking ability:
● India
has been audacious about risky maneuvers in its immediate region, such as the
surgical strikes in Pakistan and Myanmar, inserting itself into a geopolitical
crisis of this magnitude is very different.
● Especially
in a situation where, as a broker of peace, there is no guarantee of a win.
4. Credibility:
● The
question of credibility, which India feels it has gained by walking the
tightrope. But some in the West may view India as closer to Russia.
● Also, both Ukraine and Russia have to agree to Delhi having the credibility to be the mediator.
Does India tilted towards Russia:
Crucial bilateral relations:
● Russia
is crucial for India's nuclear program, space, defence, energy, connectivity,
Afghanistan, terrorism, Iran, among others.
Energy security:
● Russia
is significant for India's energy security having supplied the fuel supply at
the discounted price.
● Faced
with criticism for buying Russian oil at discounted prices, he made it clear
that India would continue to do so to cater to the needs of its citizens.
Geo-political interest:
● India
has strategic stakes in defense ties with Russia.
● A
closer Russia-China strategic embrace is detrimental to India’s interests,
given the US-China rivalry.
● India
might become a frontline state in the 21st century rivalry between China and America,
in a manner similar to what western Europe faced during the era of Soviet
American competition.
● In this context, India needs Moscow to keep its defense supplies going strongly with India, and not share sensitive technologies with China.
Conclusion:
● India
is not a client state of any great power (even client states have not joined
the sanctions regime). It is not a member of any alliance system - the Quad
(India, Australia, Japan and the U.S.) is not an alliance.
● Like
any other country, India also retains the right to take policies based on
pragmatic realism and its core national interests. And India thinks that a
neutral position anchored in strategic autonomy which keeps channels open with
both sides is what serves its interests.
● It
does not mean that India supports the war. It has not. The U.S - India's most
important strategic partner does not seem to appreciate these nuances.