INDIA – MYANMAR -INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
News: Two
years after Myanmar coup, how the country is a mess — and India’s headache has
worsened
What's in the news?
● It
is two years since the Myanmar army seized power. The coup took place in the
pre-dawn hours of February 1, 2021, the day on which new Members of Parliament
were scheduled to meet in an inaugural session to take the oath of office. The
National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi had won a landslide
victory.
Key takeaways:
India’s continuing policy tightrope in Myanmar:
1. Foreign Policy dilemma:
● In
India, which shares a 1,600-km border with Myanmar along four Northeastern
states, as well as a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal, the failure of the
Myanmar state presents a foreign policy dilemma that it is struggling to
resolve.
● For
some three decades, India has pursued a “dual-track
policy”, which essentially means doing business with the junta, which has
ruled over Myanmar for all but five years since 1990, with tea and sympathy for
the pro-democracy forces.
2. Engaged with Military rulers:
● The
decision to engage with the military rulers was taken in the mid-1990s
primarily as a quid pro quo for its help
in securing India’s Northeastern borders by denying safe haven on its soil
to Northeastern insurgencies.
● This
worked to India’s advantage, and became the touchstone by which the
relationship with military-ruled Myanmar was built for several years.
3. Increasing China's dominance:
● Over
the last two decades, as China with its deep pockets emerged as a rival in the
region, engaging with the junta was also seen as a way to retain Indian
influence in Myanmar.
● Delhi
had to calibrate this engagement during the “democratic transition” of the last
decade and rebalance the dual track.
4. Present takeovers of India:
● The
border security management, and restricting
China in Myanmar were the two key priorities for India with Myanmar at
present.
Importance of Myanmar:
1. ASEAN gateway:
● The
only ASEAN nation that borders India is Myanmar, serving as the country’s entry
point into South East Asia as part of India’s
“Look East Policy” and “Act East Policy”.
2. Maritime security:
● India
built the Sittwe port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state as part of its SAGAR Vision.
● The
port is India’s response to the Chinese-fronted
Kyaukpyu port, which aims to solidify China’s geostrategic presence in
Rakhine.
3. North-east development:
● The
success of infrastructure, developmental projects in the North-Eastern part of
India directly depend on the co-operation with Myanmar.
● The
Development of India-Myanmar-Thailand(IMT)
trilateral highway.
● Kaladan Multi-Modal
Transit Transport (KMMTT) corridor.
4. Reduction of illegal migrants coming to India:
● During
the recent Rohingya issue, 14000
registered and 40000 unregistered refugees came to India.
● A
stable Myanmar can prevent the fleeing of refugees.
5. Tackling insurgency in North-east:
● Myanmar
shares a 1643 Km long boundary with India’s North Eastern State.
● Insurgent
groups such as ISCN-K, ISCN-IM have operational bases inside Myanmar.
● The
democratically elected government cooperated with India in controlling the
insurgent activities especially, the Naga insurgency.
6. China threat:
● Warm
relations with Myanmar are necessary to control the growing influence of China
in the Asian region.
7. Energy security:
● Myanmar
has rich reserves of oil and natural gas. Since India imports nearly 80% of its
fuel, Myanmar is important for India.
● Myanmar
is potentially an important partner in the energy sector as future offshore gas
finds can be piped to India. India currently has a JWG on Oil and Gas and JSC
& JWG on Power cooperation.
India - Myanmar Relations:
1. Strategic relation:
● The
geographically strategic location of Myanmar makes it a bridge between South Asia and Southeast Asia.
● Both
nations seek to cooperate to counteract
drug trafficking and insurgent groups operating in the border areas.
● Tatmadaw
responded well to Indian overtures and even allowed India to conduct
counter-interagency operations against Indian insurgents groups in Myanmar
border areas.
2. Infrastructure and Development projects:
● In
2013, India provided a 500 million $ LOC (Line
of Credit) for the developmental projects in Myanmar.
● Apart
from the above, IMT trilateral highway and Kaladan
Multi-Modal Transit Transport (KMMTT) are also under implementation.
● India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT)
trilateral highway connects Moreh in the
Indian state of Manipur to the Mae Sot in Thailand. This route is
interconnected via Mandalay in Myanmar.
3. Defence Cooperation:
● Both
the countries conduct a joint military exercise named India - Myanmar Bilateral Military Exercise (IMBEX).
● Both
the armies jointly carried out Operation
Sunrise twice.
○ Under
Operation Sunrise, the India-Myanmar armies jointly target the militant groups
that operate in the border states.
4. Economic relations:
● India
is Burma's 4th largest trading partner after Thailand, China, and Singapore.
● India
is the second-largest export market for Burmese exports after Thailand.
● The
bilateral trade stands at approximately US
$1.6 billion in 2020-21.
5. Development aid:
● India
has committed $1.7 billion of aid and loans to Myanmar for infrastructure
development which is inclusive of faculties and health care centers. This aid
is a crucial tool for exercising 'soft
power'.
6. Cultural cooperation:
● India
has built on the cultural affinities shared with Myanmar by assisting in restoration work on Ananda temple in Bagan.
This gives India enormous goodwill.
● A
bust of Bal Gangadhar Tilak in Mandalay
Jail is a symbolic gesture for a closer relationship and understanding of
mutual existence.
7. Multilateral cooperation:
● India
and Myanmar are leading members of BIMSTEC,
SAARC and the Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, along with Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
and Thailand, helping India develop its influence and ties amongst Southeast
Asian nations.
Emerging challenges:
1. China’s growing dominance:
● Ever
since the coup, China’s economic grip over Myanmar has only become tighter with
a special focus on projects critical for the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.
● Hence,
India needs to have continuous dialogue with Myanmar to keep the security
situation in the North east under control.
● Myanmar
is also a part of the Belt and Road
Initiative.
2. Dilemma to engage with the Military regime:
● Since
the coup, India has been firm that the gains made by Myanmar over the last
decade on the path towards democracy should not be lost.
● Further,
any democratic transition in Myanmar cannot be done without involving the
Junta, so it is imperative that India keeps all channels of communication open
with it.
3. Border & Regional Security:
● The
political instability in the
post-coup period is expected to divert the attention of the Myanmar Army from
its periphery and its borders. This may create tensions at border areas in India (refugees, insurgents, illegal
movements).
4. Delayed Connectivity Projects:
● Peace
in Chin and Rakhine states of Myanmar is essential for the completion of the
Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and the Trilateral Highway
project.
5. Trade:
● Bilateral
trade between the 2 countries remains far
below potential.
● A
major reason for this is often the movement of infrastructure projects at snail
space. Notably, India's project implementation capacity is very lacklustre.
● India
imposed restrictions on the import of pulses so as to enhance price realization
for Indian farmers. This decision didn't go down well with the Myanmarese
government because it impacted Myanmar s exports to India.
WAY FORWARD:
1. Security Cooperation:
● For
economic relations to improve, India and Myanmar must boost their security
cooperation at the border. The more secure the border is, the greater the
economic activity will be.
● For
example: Part of the reason why the KMMTT has faced delays is that the route of
the project traverses a warzone in Rakhine state, where a battle rages on
between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army rebels on the one hand, and on the
other, the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army.
● Insurgents
from India’s Nagaland have also disrupted the completion of the KMMTT project.
2. Handling Rohingya issue with care:
● Myanmar’s
geostrategic importance to India has meant that Delhi did not take a hardline
approach on Naypyidaw vis-à-vis the Rohingya issue, even keeping its distance
when Myanmar was hauled into the International Court of Justice over
accusations of Rohingya genocide.
3. Cultural diplomacy:
● India’s Buddhist
diplomacy would bolster its tourist industry and
could build up India’s diplomatic reservoir of goodwill and trust with
Buddhist-majority countries such as Myanmar.
4. Cooperation:
● India
shares many common concerns with
Myanmar that range from socio-economic development, similar ecological and
climatic concerns, shared concerns over insurgency and regional peace, and
preserving sovereignty in light of growing Chinese assertiveness.
● These
offer tremendous scope for cooperation. India must seize this chance and
expedite the work on ongoing projects while at an equivalent time exercising
soft power through constructive aid and cultural exchange.
5. Expanding trade relations:
● While
India-Myanmar shares trade relations in many areas, but post-COVID-19 they can expand their trade relations further
in areas such as pharmaceuticals,
healthcare, transport, food processing, steel, renewable energy, communication,
education and others which can help both the countries to revive and
generate employment.
● Given
the sub-optimal performance vis a vis trade and investment, there is tremendous
potential and optimism to expand the same.
The
complexity of India’s regional security
and neighborhood demands India to adopt a more nuanced position without losing
its essential pragmatism in engaging with Myanmar.