INDIA - AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS – INTERNATIONAL 

News: No country should be allowed to use Afghan territory to export terrorism: NSA Doval at Moscow meet


What's in the news?

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval said that no country should be allowed to use Afghan territory to export terrorism and asserted that India will never abandon the people of Afghanistan in their time of need.


Key takeaways:

In an address at a Multilateral Security Dialogue on Afghanistan in Moscow, Mr. Doval said that an inclusive and representative dispensation in Kabul is in the larger interest of the Afghan society.

He also reaffirmed that the well being and humanitarian needs of the people of Afghanistan is India’s foremost priority and it will continue to guide New Delhi’s approach towards that country.

Doval said that India “is and will” remain an important stakeholder in Afghanistan and stood by the people of Afghanistan and will always support collective efforts to help the Afghan people build a prosperous and vibrant nation once again.

The NSA said terrorism has become a major threat to the region and emphasized that intensified intelligence and security cooperation is needed among member states to deal with terror outfits like the Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Daesh.


India - Afghan Relations:

Historical backdrop:

India and Afghanistan have a strong relationship based on historical and cultural links.

The relationship has its foundations in the historical contacts and exchanges between the people.

In the recent past, India-Afghanistan relations have been further strengthened by the Strategic Partnership Agreement, which was signed between the two countries in October 2011.


Indian Projects in Afghan:

The Prime Minister of India visited Herat in 2016 and inaugurated the Afghan-India Friendship Dam, earlier known as Salma Dam.

The Prime Minister along with a high-level delegation inaugurated the newly built Afghan Parliament and gifted four Mi-25 Attack helicopters to the Afghan Air Force in 2016.

Shahtoot Dam and drinking water project for Kabul that would also facilitate irrigation; water supply for Charikar City; road connectivity to Band-e-Amir in Bamyan Province that would promote tourism;

Low cost housing for returning Afghan refugees in Nangarhar Province to assist in their resettlement;

A gypsum board manufacturing plant in Kabul to promote value added local industry development and import substitution;

A polyclinic in Mazar-e-Sharif among others.

In addition, India also committed to take up additional 116 High Impact Community Development Projects in 34 provinces of Afghanistan.


Role of India in Afghan's Social development:

Human resource development and capacity building initiatives constitute an important segment of India's assistance in Afghanistan.

On an average, more than 3,500 Afghan nationals undergo training/education in India every year.

More than 15,000 Afghan students pursue education in India on a self-financing basis.

India’s assistance in human resource development has helped to create a large pool of trained manpower that has been an asset to both the public and private sectors in Afghanistan.

A Medical Diagnostic Centre in Kabul was set up in 2015. The Centre provides latest diagnostic facilities to children of Afghanistan thereby generating goodwill for India.

To combat the global pandemic of COVID-19 and related issues of food security, India is committed to deliver 75,000 MT of Wheat to Afghanistan in 2020.

In terms of humanitarian assistance, India has sent 20,000 metric tonnes (MT) of wheat, 13 tonnes of medicines, 500,000 doses of Covid vaccines, and winter clothing for the Afghan people so far.


India's role before Taliban (Post 2001-2021):

Though not a traditional donor, it became Afghanistan’s biggest regional development partner. 

During the last two decades, India committed nearly US$3 billion (S$4.08 billion) towards humanitarian assistance, infrastructure development and rebuilding governance capacity with special focus on human resource development. 

A million tonnes of wheat, rebuilding hospitals, running half a dozen medical camps across the country providing prosthetics and undertaking minor surgeries were the major humanitarian projects. 

Power transmission lines enabling electricity import from Uzbekistan, road connectivity, a multipurpose hydel project, a machine tool workshop, television uplink and downlink systems, a new parliament building and cold storage units for local agricultural produce were among the infrastructure projects.

Over a thousand Afghan students received scholarships every year for college and university education, and nearly an equal number attended short-term professional courses (like information technology, management and accounting) and basic skilling courses (refrigeration, electrical repairs, plumbing, carpentry etc). 

The United Nations Development Programme partnered with India to train Afghan civil servants. 

More than 60,000 Afghans returned to help rebuild their country after completing their education in India. 

To strengthen local governance, India funded over 400 small development projects that were both proposed and implemented by local non-governmental organizations and district level officials. 

Special projects for skilling and reviving women’s enterprises were undertaken.

India also spearheaded Afghanistan’s membership into the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

In 2011, India became the first country with which Afghanistan signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement.

Though Indian involvement in the security sector was minimal, largely due to US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization sensitivities, as they were dependent on communication and supply lines through Pakistan. 

Gradually, as the Afghan army expanded, it began to make increasing use of Indian defence training establishments.                 


Taliban's takeover:

India had withdrawn its officials from the embassy after the Taliban seized power in August 2021 following concerns over their security.

India has not yet recognized the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and has been pitching for the formation of a truly inclusive Government in Kabul.

Following the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power, India has delivered 40,000 metric tonnes of wheat, 60tonnes of medicines, 5,00,000 Covid vaccines, winter clothing and 28tonnes of disaster relief to the country.

India has granted fresh scholarships to 2,260 Afghan students, including 300 Afghan girls, during the past two years. India has been pitching for providing unimpeded humanitarian aid to Afghanistan to address the unfolding humanitarian crisis.

In June last year, India re-established its diplomatic presence in Kabul by deploying a “technical team” in its embassy in the Afghan capital.

                    

India - Afghan Relations after Taliban takeover:

India's fear on Taliban regime:

Indian security establishment believes that a hardline Islamic Sharia-based Government may spread its radical ideological influence across the subcontinent, boosting the morale of the Islamist terror groups operating in India and generating stronger recruitment and violence.

This belief is reinforced by the Taliban’s insistence on establishing an “Islamic Emirate” and not a “Republic,” which could have denoted an effort to establish an inclusive polity.


Pakistan factor:

New Delhi fears that Pakistan will use Afghan soil more freely to train, equip and motivate anti-India terror groups like the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and JeM under the Taliban’s watch and eventually use them to foment instability in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). 

The absence of a democratically elected government and the dismal law and order situation in Afghanistan under Taliban rule has already exacerbated those fears. 

For India, a “Pakistan-dependent” government in Afghanistan is not ideal as it is likely to generate security issues in J&K and other parts of the country. 

India fears that the Taliban’s over-dependence on Islamabad may result in increased activities of anti-India terror groups on the Afghan soil, threats to Indian-funded projects in Afghanistan, and hindrance to India’s land connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia. 

India’s immediate focus remains to ensure that Pakistan does not exploit Afghanistan’s instability and use its soil for anti-India terrorist activities, especially in J&K - as it has in the past.


Threat of radicalization: 

The threat of growing radicalization and space for pan-Islamic terror groups in India’s neighbourhood.


New Regional Geopolitical Developments: 

There can be new regional geopolitical alignments (such as China-Pakistan-Taliban) which may go against the interests of India.


Impact on Afghanistan: 

There is the worry for India of the impact on Afghanistan itself, given the Taliban’s past record in power, of an erosion in women’s and minority rights, the overturning of a democratic system and the imposition of the Taliban’s brutal form of justice. 

A Taliban regime in Kabul will have fewer international partners, and receive far less financial assistance, the impact of which will be felt most keenly by Afghanistan’s most vulnerable.


Why is Afghanistan important for India?

1. Security: A stable Afghanistan is crucial for regional and domestic security and stability for India.

2. Connectivity: The most important role of Afghanistan is always considered as India’s gateway to Central Asia.

3. Energy ambitions: Peaceful Afghan is essential to address the energy needs of India.

4. Regional Balance of Power: Afghanistan is tied to India’s vision of being a regional leader and a great power, coupled with its competition with China over resources and its need to counter Pakistani influence.

5. Natural Resources: The country is home to resource deposits worth one trillion dollars, according to the US Geological Survey.

6. India’s development initiatives: Placing India as a regional player.


Protecting India's interest:

Regardless of whether or not India recognizes the Taliban as the legitimate ruler in Afghanistan, the Government will have to open channels of communication to engage the Taliban.

India has three critical areas in dealing with the Taliban.

Protecting its investments, which run into billions of rupees, in Afghanistan.

Preventing a future Taliban regime from being a pawn of Pakistan.

Making sure that the Pakistan-backed anti-India terrorist groups do not get support from the Taliban.


Recent takes by India:

With national security concerns in mind, India has also shown no signs of recognizing the Taliban regime. 

Nonetheless, New Delhi has recalibrated its Afghanistan strategy by engaging with the regime informally, addressing security threats emanating from Afghan soil, and continuing people-to-people exchanges. 

It provided emergency humanitarian assistance despite connectivity constraints and the absence of a functional embassy in Kabul. 

Despite ideological differences, India also hopes to increase its engagements with the Taliban in the coming months by leveraging growing differences between the Taliban and Pakistan.

The humanitarian aid has been distributed through international organizations like the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the World Food Programme, and UNICEF because India doesn’t have people on the ground to distribute it. 


Assurance from Taliban:

Indian officials in Qatar met with the Taliban representatives on August 31, 2021, signaling the significance of limited engagement to India’s security calculus. 

During the meeting, India underlined its security concerns on terrorism and reportedly received Taliban’s assurances on the same.

Taliban assured that it cannot allow any country to use its soil against the third country (in mind with Pakistan which is what India feared off).

Recently Taliban’s Head of Political Office, Mr. Shaheen, assured of peaceful working environment for the Indian companies and said, “Security of Indians is our responsibility and we assure them.”


Humanitarian and Financial aid by India:

Afghanistan’s humanitarian and economic crises may have also provided an opening for India to redefine its strategic approach. 

Since the Taliban takeover, India has supplied wheat and other essential food items and 500,000 COVID-19 vaccines as humanitarian aid to Afghanistan.

Carrying this engagement forward, the Indian Government has announced financial assistance of USD $27 million to Afghanistan in its 2022-2023 budget.


Opportunity for India:

With ongoing uneasiness between Islamabad and Kabul over issues like border skirmishes, in addition to lack of headway in Taliban-Islamabad peace talks, the Taliban may give greater leverage to New Delhi for further engagement. 

This is contingent on the Taliban’s reciprocity in addressing India’s core security concerns.

Thus, India needs to use the growing divergence between Talibans and Pakistan by positively engaging in its traditional sphere such as financial aid, developmental projects, education and health, etc.


International cooperation:

Work with like-minded countries in the region and outside to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan. 

For example, in November 2021, New Delhi conducted the “Third Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan,” followed by the India-Central Asia dialogue in December 2021 to “find ways of helping the people of Afghanistan.”


WAY FORWARD:

1. Broader Diplomatic Engagement: India should consider appointing a special envoy dedicated to Afghanistan. The envoy can ensure that Indian views are expressed at every meeting, and broaden engagement with the Taliban.

2. Decoupling of Taliban-Pakistan: The Taliban is bound to seek a measure of autonomy from Pakistan. India will have to wait a while before the current issues between India and the Taliban can be overcome.

3. Balancing the Opportunities in Afghanistan: Structuring the internal balance of power within Afghanistan has always been hard. However, for a patient, open-minded and active India, there will be no dearth of balancing opportunities in Afghanistan.

4. Leverage Indian Infrastructural Developments: Indian USD 3 billion assistance to Afghanistan is in concrete projects that serve its population and have earned it their goodwill that will endure.

5. Continued Training and Investments: India should provide more military training to Afghan security forces and invest in longer-term capacity-building programs. It should actively support and invest in the National Directorate of Security.

6. Developmental aid: Given the continued levels of violence and the impact of the coronavirus on the Afghan economy, India should expand its development assistance.