GLOBAL COORDINATION IN CLIMATE PREDICTION : ENVIRONMENT
NEWS: Global coordination can trump efforts to undercut climate predictions
WHAT’S IN THE NEWS?
The downsizing of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Trump administration has raised concerns about the future of climate predictions. There are worries that reduced funding and staff might undermine the ability to monitor, predict, and respond to climate-related challenges.
Climate Predictions and Projections
• Climate Projections:
• Climate projections refer to potential future climate scenarios developed using global models.
• These models are coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
• Projections provide insights into various future climate scenarios based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions and policy interventions.
• The projections are widely used for long-term planning and assessing the impacts of climate change.
• Climate Predictions:
• Climate predictions rely on real-time data and are based on global observational systems under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
• These predictions aim to forecast short-term climate conditions, including specific weather patterns, temperatures, and precipitation.
• To ensure accuracy, climate predictions require continuous updates as new observational data becomes available.
• Unlike projections, which deal with broader, long-term scenarios, predictions focus on providing more immediate, actionable insights for areas such as agriculture, disaster management, and public health.
The Need for K-Scale Modelling
• Spatial Resolution of Existing Models:
• Existing climate models often lack the spatial resolution necessary for accurate region-specific predictions.
• Many global models work on larger scales, which can overlook localized phenomena like small-scale weather events or microclimates.
• This gap in spatial resolution makes it difficult to accurately model events like thunderstorms, heatwaves, or urban heat islands.
• K-Scale Climate Models:
• K-scale models, with a 1-kilometer spatial resolution, represent a major advancement in climate modelling.
• These models are designed to capture fine-scale atmospheric processes, resulting in more accurate simulations of both weather patterns and longer-term climate behaviour.
• A key advantage is that the enhanced resolution allows for better modelling of localized events, which are critical for specific regions, such as urban areas or those prone to extreme weather events.
• For instance, K-scale models can simulate phenomena like thunderstorms, heat islands in cities, and local variations in precipitation patterns with much higher accuracy compared to coarser models.
Types of Grid Scales in Climate Models
• Coarse Resolution Grids:
• These grids feature larger cells, typically spanning several degrees of latitude and longitude.
• Coarse grids are often used in early climate models and in some general circulation models (GCMs).
• They are designed to simulate large-scale climate patterns, such as global temperature trends, ocean circulation, and atmospheric pressure systems.
• High-Resolution Grids:
• High-resolution grids feature smaller cells, usually less than a degree in latitude and longitude.
• These grids are used in regional climate models to study specific areas in greater detail, such as individual countries, cities, or ecological regions.
• High-resolution models are crucial for studying phenomena such as localized weather events, urban heat islands, or impacts on specific ecosystems.
• Gaussian Grids:
• Gaussian grids utilize a non-uniform grid system where the spacing of grid points is unequal along longitudes but remains equally spaced along latitudes.
• These grids are based on Gaussian quadrature, a mathematical technique used in spectral models.
• Institutions like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) commonly employ Gaussian grids in their modelling.
• They are useful for global models that require a more efficient use of computational resources while still providing detailed simulations.
• Variable-Resolution Grids:
• Variable-resolution grids feature cell sizes that can vary depending on the region of interest.
• These grids allow for a finer resolution in areas where detailed analysis is needed (e.g., urban areas, coastal regions, or areas prone to extreme weather).
• In regions that do not require high levels of detail, coarser resolution can be used to save computational resources.
• Variable-resolution grids are particularly helpful when focusing computational power on specific areas while maintaining efficiency in less critical regions.
Source: https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/global-coordination-can-trump-efforts-to-undercut-climate-predictions/article69294831.ece