FOREIGN POLICY OF SAUDI ARABIA AND INDIA – INTERNATIONAL

FOREIGN POLICY OF SAUDI ARABIA AND INDIA – INTERNATIONAL

News: Saudi Arabia’s quest for strategic autonomy

 

What's in the news?

●       Saudi Arabia, which had adopted an aggressive foreign policy in recent years seeking to expand its influence in West Asia and roll back that of Iran, its bitter rival, is now following a dramatic course correction.

 

FOREIGN POLICY OF SAUDI ARABIA SO FAR:

  1. For years, the main driver of Saudi foreign policy was the kingdom’s hostility towards Iran.
  2. This has resulted in proxy conflicts across the region.
    1. In Syria, Iran’s only state ally in West Asia, Saudi Arabia joined hands with its Gulf allies as well as Turkey and the West to bankroll and arm the rebellion against President Bashar al Assad.
    2. In Yemen, whose capital Sana’a was captured by the Iran Backed Shia Houthi rebels in 2014, the Saudis started a bombing campaign in March 2015, which hasn’t formally come to an end yet.
    3. One of the demands the Saudis made to Qatar when it imposed a blockade on its smaller neighbor in 2017 was to sever ties with Iran. However, the Qatar blockade came to an unsuccessful end in 2021.

 

Course correction in recent days:

  1. Last month, Saudi Arabia announced a deal, after China­ mediated talks, to normalize diplomatic ties with Iran.
  2. Soon after, there were reports that Russia was mediating talks between Saudi Arabia and Syria, which could lead to Syria re-entering the Arab League before its next summit, scheduled for May in Saudi Arabia.
  3. Earlier this week, a Saudi-Omani delegation traveled to Yemen to hold talks with the Houthi rebels for a permanent ceasefire.
  4. All these moves mark a decisive shift from the policy adopted by Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman after he rose to the top echelons of the Kingdom in 2017.
  5. Aggressiveness makes way for diplomacy and loyal alliances make room for pragmatic realignments.
  6. This is happening at a time when Saudi Arabia is also trying to balance between the U.S., its largest arms supplier, Russia, its OPEC Plus partner, and China, the new superpower in the region.

 

Reasons for its Decisive Shift in Foreign Policy:

  1. The Kingdom’s recent regional bets were either unsuccessful or only partially successful.
    1. In Syria, Mr. Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, has won the civil war.
    2. In Yemen, while the Saudi intervention may have helped prevent the Houthis from expanding their reach beyond Sana’a and the north, the Saudi­ led coalition, which itself is now in a fractured state, failed to oust them from the capital.
  2. In parallel, the U.S.’s priority is shifting away from West Asia. So the choices Saudi Arabia is faced with, is to either double down on its failed bets seeking to contain Iran in a region which is no longer a priority for the U.S., the kingdom’s most important security partner, or undo the failed policies and reach out to Iran to establish a new balance between the two.
  3. When China, which has good ties with both Tehran and Riyadh, offered to mediate between the two, the Saudis found it as an opportunity and seized it.

 

Saudi and Global powers:

1. Saudi and USA:

●       The U.S., which has thousands of troops and military assets in the Gulf, including its Fifth Fleet, would continue to play a major security role in the region.

●       For Saudi Arabia, the U.S. remains its largest defence supplier.

●       The Kingdom is also trying to develop advanced missile and drone capabilities to counter Iran’s edge in these areas with help from the U.S. and others.

●       Saudi Arabia has placed orders for Boeing aircraft worth $35 billion and entered into conditional talks with the U.S. on normalising ties with Israel.

●       However, the Saudis realize that the U.S. 's de-prioritization of West Asia is altering the post­-war order of the region.

a.       What Saudi Arabia is trying to do is to use the vacuum created by the U.S. policy changes to autonomise its foreign policy.

b.      The early signs of this autonomisation was visible in Saudi Arabia’s recent decisions.

2. Saudi and Russia:

●       Saudi Arabia refused to join western sanctions against Russia in relation to the Ukraine crisis.

●       Despite protests from Washington, Saudi Arabia joined hands with Russia to effect oil production cuts twice since the Ukraine war began, aimed at keeping the prices high which would help both Moscow and Riyadh.

●       Russia is alleged to be a mediator between Saudi Arabia and Syria

3. Saudi and China:

●       Saudi Arabia has also built stronger trade and defense ties with China.

●       The Iran reconciliation deal, under China’s mediation, announced Beijing’s arrival as a power broker in West Asia.

 

Implications for India regards this new foreign policy approach of Saudi Arabia:

1. Ensuring stability in West Asia:

●       The normalization talks with Saudi Arabia and many of its rivals will lead to peace in the problematic west Asia.

●       Peace in this region is inevitable for India because There is a huge Indian diaspora in this region. And their livelihood and security is the top priority for India

●       Net inflow remittances from this region is also not affected.

2. Ensuring Energy security:

●       Since 80% of our crude oil is being imported and West Asia is contributing a lot for India’s oil basket (Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia are among top 5 oil exporting countries for India).

●       The peace in this region is essential for continued oil supply and stable oil prices.

3. India’s benefit in geopolitical aspect:

●       Even though India is following a dehyphenation policy with respect to Iran and Saudi Arabia, the close cooperation with Iran creates conflict of interest with relations with Saudi Arabia.

●       But after the transition of foreign policy put forth by Saudi Arabia, India is free to have a relationship with any country in west Asia without antagonizing the other.

 

Americanization of West Asia is not a Saudi goal. Rather it is trying to exploit America’s weakness in the region to establish its own autonomy by building better ties with Russia and China and mending relations with regional powers without completely losing the U.S.