EL NINO AND INDIAN
MONSOON – GEOGRAPHY
News: El Nino and the monsoon
What's in the news?
● From 2019 to 2022, India
had four consecutive years of good southwest monsoons and overall rainfall.
● In
these four years, the country as a whole received an average area-weighted
rainfall of 1,268 mm annually and 933.1 mm over the four-month southwest monsoon
season (June-September).
● According
to national accounts data, the farm sector has grown by an average of 4.3% per
year from 2019-20 to 2022-23, as against 3.2% from 2014-15 to 2018-19.
● The bountiful rainfall
over the last four years owes significantly to La Nina,
an atmospheric wind and sea surface temperature (SST) variability phenomenon
that occurs over the equatorial Pacific, but impacts weather worldwide.
El Nino and La Nina:
● El
Nino and La Nina are complex weather patterns resulting from variations in
ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Region. They are opposite phases
of what is known as the El Nino-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
El Nino:
● El
Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific
Ocean.
● It
is the “warm phase” of a larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO).
● It
occurs more frequently than La Nina.
La Nina:
● La
Nina, the “cool phase” of ENSO, is a pattern that describes the unusual cooling of the tropical eastern
Pacific.
● La
Nina events may last between one and three years, unlike El Nino, which usually
lasts no more than a year.
● Both
phenomena tend to peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Intensity of El Nino:
● The
Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is used to
measure deviations from normal sea surface temperatures.
● The
intensity of El Nino events varies from weak temperature increases (about 4-5°
F) with only moderate local effects on weather and climate to very strong
increases (14-18° F) associated with worldwide climatic changes.
WORLDWIDE IMPACT OF EL-NINO:
1. Increased Rainfall:
● Rainfall
increases drastically in South America,
contributing to coastal flooding and erosion.
2. Diseases caused by
Floods and Drought:
● Increases
in cholera, dengue, and malaria in some parts of the world, while drought can
lead to wildfires that create
respiratory problems.
3. Impact of fisheries:
● The
coastal fisheries and local weather of Australia to South America are affected.
4. On weather:
● El
Nino reduces the instances of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
● Weaker monsoons and
sometimes drought in India and Southeast Asia.
IMPACT ON INDIAN WEATHER
AND ECONOMY:
1. The El Niño threat:
● While
La Nina is associated with good rainfall in India, this isn't the case with El
Niño-the opposite "warm" phase of ENSO
● El Nino and Indian
monsoon are inversely related.
● The
most prominent droughts in India – six of them – since 1871 have been El Nino
droughts, including the recent ones in 2002 and 2009
● However,
not all El Nino years led to a drought in India. For instance, 1997/98 was a
strong El Nino year but there was no drought (Because of IOD).
● El
Nino directly impacts India’s agrarian economy as it tends to lower the
production of summer crops such as rice, sugarcane, cotton and oilseeds.
2. Indian agriculture:
● Nearly
70% of India's farms depend on rainfall which makes up 18% of India's Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
● Nearly
half of India's workforce is in agriculture.
● A poor rainfall and the
subsequent dip in agriculture income means demand falls in rural areas.
3. On overall economy:
● MSP
- The government may also be forced to raise the minimum support prices of
crops to support the rural economy.
● Inflation
- The increase in MSP pushes up retail
inflation. The El Nino last affected India's monsoon in 2009. During that
year, rainfall was 23% less than normal, leading to a drought. This pushed up
food prices as production of essential commodities like rice and sugarcane got
hit. It also caused the global price of sugar to hit a record high.
● High lending rate
- At a time when the economy is weak, the manufacturing industry is struggling,
and consumer spending is low, an increase in inflation will be harmful. It will
also force the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep interest rates high
GOVERNMENT STEPS TO
MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF EL NIÑO:
1. Mission Amrit Sarovar:
It is a scheme of developing 75ponds in
each district by the government to help reduce the dependence on rainfall.
2. Pradhan Mantri Fasal
Bima Yojana (PMFBY): It is a crop insurance scheme launched by the
government to protect farmers from crop loss due to various natural calamities,
including drought, floods, and other weather-related events.
3. Soil Health Card
scheme: This scheme aims to promote soil testing
and provide farmers with the necessary information to help farmers to better manage their crops during
periods of drought or other weather-related events.
4. National Watershed
Development Project for Rainfed Areas (NWDPRA):
This project aims to promote sustainable
watershed management practices in rainfed areas to improve soil moisture
and water availability for crops during drought periods.
5. National Food Security
Mission (NFSM): It aims to increase the productivity of crops in rainfed areas through the
adoption of better farming practices and the use of new technologies.
6. Pradhan Mantri Krishi
Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY): It aims to promote efficient use of water resources in
agriculture and increase water use efficiency to deal with drought and
other weather-related events.
7. Rashtriya Krishi Vikas
Yojana (RKVY): This scheme aims to promote agriculture development through
various initiatives, including the development of rainfed agriculture and the
use of modern technologies to improve crop productivity during drought periods.
Mitigation effects:
● Keeping
a check on the sea surface temperatures.
● Maintaining
sufficient buffer stocks of food grains
and ensuring their smooth supply to control inflation.
● Ensuring
relevant support to the farmer community including economic help such as kisan
credit, direct benefit transfer.
● Alternative
ways to be promoted such as the practice
of sustainable agriculture and zero budget natural farming.
In
February, the government forecast that the Indian economy will grow 4.9% on the
back of good monsoon rains. This is higher than last year's 4.5%. A bad
monsoon, thus, will be detrimental to India's economic recovery.