DE-DOLLARIZATION – ECONOMY

News: India, Malaysia move beyond dollar to settle trade in Indian Rupees (INR)

 

What's in the news?

       India and Malaysia have agreed to settle trade in the Indian rupees, the Ministry of External Affairs announced on April 1, 2023.

 

Key takeaways:

       The announcement came in the backdrop of ongoing official efforts to Safeguard Indian trade from the impact of the Ukraine crisis.

       The shift away from The U.S. dollar which has been the dominant reserve currency for international trade so far has added significance as it indicates India is willing to take concrete steps towards de-dollarization of its international trade.

 

 

India-Malaysia MoU:

       Trade between India and Malaysia can now be settled in Indian Rupee (INR) in addition to the current modes of settlement in other currencies.

       This follows the decision by the Reserve Bank of India in July 2022 to allow the settlement of international trade in the Indian Rupee (INR). This initiative by RBI is aimed at facilitating the growth of global trade and to support the interests of the global trading community in Indian rupees.

 

Countries got approval from RBI:

       The RBI had granted approval to domestic and foreign AD Banks in 60 cases for opening SRVAs of banks from 18 nations such as Botswana, Fiji, Germany, Guyana, Israel, Kenya, Malaysia, Mauritius, Myanmar, New Zealand, Oman, Russia, Seychelles, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Uganda and the United Kingdom.

 

De-dollarization:

       De-dollarization is a process of substituting the US dollars with another agreed currency to carry out international trade transactions. It is a method of reducing the dollar’s dominance of global markets.

       It is a way to reduce the effects of weaponization of the US dollar.

 

How is it done?

It is a process of substituting US dollar as the currency used for

       Trading oil and/ or other commodities

       Buying US dollars for the forex reserves

       Bilateral trade agreements

       Dollar-denominated assets

       The dominant role of the dollar in the global economy provides the US a disproportionate amount of influence over other economies.

 

Significance of De-dollarization:

1. Reduce Monopolistic dependence of US dollars:

       Currently, about 60 per cent of foreign exchange reserves of central banks and about 70 percent of global trade are conducted using USD.

       Thus, a de-dollarized market may reduce such kinds of monopolies.

2. Contain leverage of foreign policy:

       The status of the reserve currency allows the US government to refinance its debt at low costs in addition to providing foreign policy leverage.

       Example: US dollar has been repetitively used as an economic weapon against adversaries of western countries for a long time such as sanctions on Iran, sanctions on Russia, etc.

       Thus, de-dollarization aims to contain the foreign policy of the US.

3. Improving Economic Stability:

       By diversifying their reserves, countries can reduce their exposure to currency fluctuations and interest rate changes, which can help to improve economic stability and reduce the risk of financial crises.

4. Increasing Trade and Investment:

       By using other currencies, countries can increase trade and investment with other countries that may not have a strong relationship with the US, which can open up new markets and opportunities for growth.

5. Prevent global crisis:

       Dollar supply changes and any impact on the US banking system create ripples around the globe. For example, the 2008 global financial crisis. De-Dollarization will reduce the global impact of the US financial market.

6. Advantages for developing nations:

       Direct Trade in a country's national currency leads to saving on currency conversion spreads.

       The notion of de-dollarization can be instrumental in creating a multipolar world. Each country will look to enjoy economic autonomy in the sphere of monetary policy.

 

Negative Impacts of De-dollarization:

1. Financial Instability:

       The dollar's dominance in the international financial system can contribute to financial instability in other countries, as they may be more susceptible to financial crises.

2. Economic wars:

       The US might see the move as a challenge, which may lead to an eruption of economic war between world powers such as trade wars between US-China which happened in the near past.

3. Limited use of national currencies:

       The dollar is widely used in international trade, making it difficult for national currencies to compete. This can make it harder for countries to conduct trade with one another and for businesses to expand internationally.

4. Vulnerability of developing nations:

       Many countries are heavily dependent on the dollar for trade and financial transactions, which can make them vulnerable to changes in the value of the dollar and to the policies of the US government.

5. National currencies not fully convertible:

       The challenge for national currencies is that these are not fully convertible.

       Thus, despite the rise of alternate systems of trade, and multiple currency circulation systems, the dollar still dominates.

 

 

Global efforts:

Bilateral Currency Swaps:

       Bilateral currency swaps among ASEAN countries, China, Japan, South Korea are USD380 billion and rising.

       Similarly, the South African rand is used by several African countries.

       The Latin American countries are moving towards greater inter-regional trade.

 

Initiation of Trade in National Currencies:

       Asian central banks have over USD 400 billion of local currency swap lines and trade amongst themselves.

       The BRICS’s New Development Bank encourages trade and investment in national currencies by disbursing up to 50% of its loans in national currencies since 2015.

       China developed the Renminbi in 2015 and offers clearing and settlement services for participants in cross-border yuan payments and trade.

       Russian banks have started using the China-based Cross-Border Interbank Payment System for international payments, as they are debarred from the SWIFT international system.

 

WAY FORWARD:

1. Diversifying foreign exchange reserves:

       Governments can reduce their dependence on the dollar by holding a greater proportion of their foreign exchange reserves in other currencies, such as the Euro or the Chinese Yuan.

2. Encouraging the use of domestic currencies in international trade:

       Governments can promote the use of their own currencies in international trade by providing incentives for businesses to use them.

       Since 2019, India has been paying Russia for fuel, oil, minerals and specific defence imports in rupees on an informal basis.

3. Developing alternative payment systems:

       Governments can work to develop alternative payment systems, such as the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, that are not dependent on the dollar.

4. Building economic alliances:

       Governments can form economic alliances with other countries to reduce their dependence on the dollar.

5. Investing in other currencies:

       Governments may invest in other currencies to reduce the risk of currency fluctuations or to counter the hegemony of the dollar.

 

De-dollarization is vital for providing a level playing field for the developing economies. It will not only offer monetary autonomy to the countries but also decrease the vulnerabilities of foreign influence.