CURRENTV ACCOUNT DEFICIT: ECONOMY

NEWS: Current account deficit narrows to $11.2 bn in Q2: RBI

 

WHAT’S IN THE NEWS?

India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) slightly decreased to $11.2 billion (1.2% of GDP) in Q2 FY2024-25, with a widening merchandise trade deficit offset by rising services exports and remittances. Foreign exchange reserves increased significantly, reflecting improved external sector stability.

 

Current Account and External Sector (Q2 FY2024-25):

Current Account Deficit (CAD):

  • Marginal Decline: CAD in the July-September 2024 quarter stood at $11.2 billion (1.2% of GDP), slightly lower than $11.3 billion (1.3% of GDP) in the same quarter of FY2023-24.
  • H1 FY2024-25 Trends: For the first half (April-September 2024), CAD totaled $21.4 billion (1.2% of GDP), showing a slight increase from $20.2 billion (1.2% of GDP) in the corresponding period of FY2023-24.

 

Merchandise Trade Deficit:

  • Higher Deficit: The merchandise trade deficit widened to $75.3 billion in Q2 FY2024-25, compared to $64.5 billion a year earlier.
  • Reason: The deficit increase reflects higher imports or stagnation in export growth, which impacts the balance of payments.

 

Net Services Receipts:

  • Rising Services Exports: Net services receipts grew to $44.5 billion from $39.9 billion in Q2 FY2023-24, driven by robust performance in:
  • Computer services
  • Business services
  • Travel and transportation services

 

Private Transfer Receipts:

  • Increase in Remittances: Private transfer receipts, primarily remittances from overseas Indians, rose to $31.9 billion in Q2 FY2024-25, up from $28.1 billion in Q2 FY2023-24.

 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):

  • Net Outflow: A significant net FDI outflow of $2.2 billion was recorded in Q2 FY2024-25, compared to a smaller outflow of $0.8 billion in the corresponding quarter of FY2023-24.

 

Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI):

  • Surge in Inflows: Net FPI inflows surged to $19.9 billion in Q2 FY2024-25, up significantly from $4.9 billion in Q2 FY2023-24.
  • Reason: Increased confidence in Indian equity and debt markets contributed to this growth.

 

Non-Resident Indian (NRI) Deposits:

  • Higher Inflows: Net inflows under NRI deposits rose to $6.2 billion in Q2 FY2024-25, compared to $3.2 billion a year ago.

 

 

Foreign Exchange Reserves:

  • Accretion to Reserves: There was an increase of $18.6 billion in forex reserves (on a balance of payment basis) in Q2 FY2024-25, significantly higher than the $2.5 billion accretion recorded in Q2 FY2023-24.

 

Broader Implications:

  • CAD Stability: Despite global challenges, CAD has remained manageable, aided by strong services exports and remittances.
  • Investment Dynamics: A notable divergence in FDI (net outflow) and FPI (high inflow) trends may reflect differences in long-term and short-term investor sentiment.
  • Forex Reserve Strength: The significant accretion to forex reserves enhances India’s external sector resilience.
  • Policy Implications: Sustained focus on promoting exports and attracting long-term FDI is crucial for maintaining external sector stability amidst global uncertainties.

 

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/business/current-account-deficit-narrows-to-11-2-bn-in-q2-rbi-9748003/