CHANGING
DIMENSIONS OF INDIA'S FOREIGN POLICY – INTERNATIONAL
News:
In the new evolving
world, India needs a new vision
Backdrop:
● India is experiencing globally transformational events. It would be right to say that the gears and levels in geopolitics are changing at a rate faster than ever.
● It seems a far-fetched dream to expect a rule-based international order in the upcoming years. Instead, uncertainty and impermanence are likely to be the dominant aspect of world affairs.
● History has witnessed a new world order after World War II, in which we are living now. After the Covid-19 pandemic, the world is quickly moving toward a new world order.
● India has to play a bigger role in the new world order emerging post the pandemic.
Challenges in Present World Order:
1. Global Rise of Authoritarianism:
● Authoritarianism and nationalism are on the rise around the world with governments becoming less transparent and losing the people's trust.
● Example: Aggressive China with India and Other South-east Nations, Aggressive Russia in Ukraine crisis, etc.
2. Aggressive China:
● China has abandoned the ‘one country two systems’ policy, stripping Hong Kong of its freedom and inviting international opprobrium.
● The human rights violation of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang and China’s aggressive posture toward Taiwan could well become one of the flashpoints of conflict.
● Militarily, China is openly challenging U.S. supremacy in many areas, including ‘state-of-the-art weaponry’ such as hypersonic technology.
● The dip in China’s economic profile in the past year and more could also lead to new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022 and over South China Sea disputes.
● Moreover, China’s expansionist policies via its Belt and Road Initiative are also being seen as a threat by other global powers such as the US, EU, the G7 countries as well as India.
● China's policy with India and recent stand-offs in Galwan and Tawang showing its rising aggressiveness and authoritarianism in the global order.
● China has managed the realignment of the world order through the strategic use of debt diplomacy, economic power and a ‘common enemy’ doctrine. It marks a fundamental reshaping of global forces.
3. Russia-Ukraine crisis:
● The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine - the latter being backed by the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces.
● The main reason for this paradigm shift in international equations is that Europe is witnessing an unprecedented mobilisation against Russia. The continent’s concerns have multiple dimensions.
4. Return of Talibans in Afghanistan:
● Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has led to a material shift in the balance of power in an already troubled region on India’s periphery.
● Developments in Afghanistan have fuelled the ambitions of quite a few ‘anti-state militant groups’ across the region.
5. Terrorism:
● With the emergence of ISIS in the past decade and the uncertainties and political stabilities in Pakistan has caused India in its fight against terrorism.
● Terrorism marked his global presence through various events in the past decades from the 9/11 event to the recent attack in New Zealand Christchurch Mosque shootings. This shows that terrorism poses an important challenge for the global order.
6. Climate Change:
● Climate change is already happening: temperatures are rising, drought and wildfires are starting to occur more frequently, rainfall patterns are shifting, glaciers and snow are melting and the global mean sea level is rising.
● Thus, climate change is an emerging and ongoing crisis in the present global order.
7. Quad and Balancing US and Russia:
● The establishment of the Quad framework with many others in line and the weakening of the UN system to arbitrate the issue of global relevance further strengthen the formation of new blocks. The Quad comprises India, Japan, Australia and the US.
● With the formation of Quad, it becomes increasingly challenging for India to balance both the US and Russia in the divided world.
8. Protectionism:
● Protectionism - the policy of protecting domestic industries against foreign competition by means of tariffs, subsidies, import quotas, or other restrictions or handicaps placed on the imports of foreign competitors.
● Following major political events of the last few years, populist and protectionist measures are increasingly affecting the global economy, which is feeling the strain. Example: America's First Policy, etc.
● America is now championing trade restrictions against its enemies. It is promoting trading blocs among its allies and incentivising domestic production through large financial assistance.
9. COVID Pandemic:
● The COVID-19 pandemic is the most disruptive global event since the Great Depression and World War 2.
● With already three waves of COVID, COVID-19 is more likely to reinforce divisive trends that were underway before the first case was detected. In particular, it will accelerate a retreat from globalization, raise new barriers to international trade, investment, and travel, and give both democratic and non-democratic governments greater power over their citizen's lives.
10. Diminishing role of UN:
● The experience of over seven decades has shown that its ability to make a difference, particularly in the peace and security areas is diminishing.
● The role of the UN was among the lowering levels as it became evident in the Russia-Ukraine crisis and Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan.
11. Cryptocurrency:
● The recent explosive development of new forms of digital currency opens up unprecedented opportunities and poses significant regulatory challenges.
● This new form of digital currency lowers the costs and other barriers to the global movement of money, international trade, foreign investment and speculation, while simultaneously enhancing the anonymity on which tax evasion, money-laundering and other illegal activities thrive.
● It also liberates the creation of money and regulation of economic activities from the political control of national governments and central banks.
12. Brexit:
● It is the abbreviation of “British Exit” from the European Union (EU). Britain has had a troubled relationship with the EU since the beginning and has made various attempts in the past to break away from it.
● Thus, Brexit poses an emerging challenge to western democracies and global order as a whole.
India's stake in the New World Order:
In 2030 India’s GDP is expected to be $8.4 trillion and will overtake Japan as Asia’s second-largest economy. The global power balance is increasingly moving from west to east. The old-world order is on its last legs and the role and importance of the G7 have been greatly diminished by the rise of the developing world. The G7 has increasingly become an institution in search of a role.
1. Centrality of economic development:
● India, buoyed by its growing economic engagement with the rest of the world, captured this opportunity to grow and develop.
2. Integrations of domestic and foreign policy:
● Another important change is much greater alignment of foreign policy with domestic objectives.
● Both the domestic programs “Swachh Bharat”, Digital India/Smart Cities were mentioned in public statements at various international platforms. Further Yoga is now being celebrated as an international day by the U.N.
3. Emphasis on national power:
● A greater emphasis is being laid on overall national power, with a more realistic assessment of the appropriate role of military power.
● One of the implications of this policy is the increased focus on unconventional threats.
● Another implication is a much greater focus on national capability to produce a broad range of defence equipment in India.
4. Greater emphasis on global socio-politics and soft power:
● This includes the expansion of common ground based on religious and cultural heritage & history of India, as well as the Indian diaspora across the world.
5. Confident pragmatism:
● This involves freeing up of self-imposed, historical and mental, constraints on developing the full potential of economic or security relations with any country.
● Thus India’s economic relationships with potential adversaries pursued relatively independently from the security relationship, without one constraining the other or being completely parallel.
6. Leader of Climate change efforts:
● India engaged with the rest of the world, including China, and made bold commitments to combat climate change.
● India announced that all countries should make legally binding commitments to meet key climate change goals - a major shift in policy and then quickly ratified the Paris Agreement, drawing worldwide accolades for its goal of installing clean energy capacity that would equal 50% of the country’s total energy capacity by 2030.
7. Balancing divergent coalitions:
● India’s foreign policy has been successfully managing several divergent coalitions at the same time, hence upholding its ‘strategic autonomy’.
● Coalitions like SCO, RIC are being balanced with QUAD and JAI. Similarly, the Arab world is being balanced with a growing partnership with Israel and a relationship with US and G7 nations to that with Russia and China.
8. From Non-alignment to Multiple alignments:
● The non-aligned movement has lost its earlier relevance with the end of the Cold War and India no longer refers to non-alignment as the basis of its foreign policy.
● In the new context, India is pursuing a policy of multi-alignment or issue-based alignment. The transformations of our ties with the US that includes the signing of various foundational defence agreements and substantial defence purchases, designation as Major Defence Partner, elaborate military exercises as well as membership of the Quad and a commitment to the Indo-Pacific concept.
● India's membership in BRICS, the SCO and the continuation of the Russia-India-China dialogue shows that pursuing our interests in all forums without either exclusivity or entering into alliances with any set of countries.
9. Taking up a leadership role:
● India has successfully created international coalitions that contribute to global welfare based on India’s national experience and strengths.
● These are specific and practical initiatives that bring diplomacy and real-life challenges together.
● Prominent among these are the International Solar Alliance, the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, and Traditional Medicine.
● India entered into an era of proactive malalignments and building international coalitions of common interest.
10. Indo-pacific construct promotion:
● The geo-strategic events currently playing out in the Indo-Pacific region bears an emergence of multi-polarity and the benefits of rebalancing.
● The Indo-Pacific, seen through a maritime prism, necessitates a strategic pre-occupation characteristically different from a purely continental one.
11. Aid diplomacy:
● The diplomatic effort launched by India to help global efforts in combating the Covid pandemic in 2020-2021, however, was unprecedented in terms of its scale and reach.
● It established India’s role as the pharmacy of the world. Similarly, humanitarian operations such as Vande Bharat which brought back millions of Indians during the Covid pandemic in 2020 and 2021 were the largest such exercises conducted.
● Operation Ganga was launched to bring back stranded Indian students from the war zone in Ukraine in 2022.
● Today, the interests of the almost 31 million-strong Indian diasporas are a top priority for the government.
12. Pitching for reforms in UN:
● Reform global political and financial system - India since the cold war phase has been trying to reform the global political system represented by the UN General assembly, its several bodies, WTO, and IMF to make them more democratic and representative thus making them work in favour of least developed nations also.
● Permanent UNSC seat - Minister Jaishankar has aptly pointed out that excluding India which will in time be the most populous state in the world and the third largest economy would call into question the representative nature of the UNSC. India has recently started putting strongly its demand for a permanent seat at UNSC and overall UNSC reforms. India has formed a grouping called ‘G4 nations’ including Germany, Japan and Brazil to promote the idea of UNSC reforms.
13. Emphasising national interest and sovereignty:
● Despite Russia's aggressiveness on Ukraine, India not only continues to buy oil from Russia but also increased the purchase of oil from Russia making it as a top-most crude oil supplier to India.
● Many times, India abstained from voting on Russia in UN bodies but at the same time, India raised its voice on the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and asked Russia to ensure peace in the region.
● Thus, India prioritised its national interest as its top-most foreign policy priority along with giving voices for humanitarian crises in the world.
WAY FORWARD:
1. Social front:
● Social harmony is a necessary condition for India’s rise as an economic power.
● Factories cannot afford to differentiate amongst people of multiple identities working together.
2. Defence and foreign affairs:
● There is a need to modernise and augment our defence capabilities with state-of-the-art weaponry.
● India should not continue with conventional military purchase norms and processes.
● The established foreign policy doctrine of non-alignment may not be conducive to India’s growing need for trade and market access in the new economic world order.
3. Keeping geopolitics in mind:
● India needs a bolder geo-economic strategy to gain preferential access to unique technologies and capital from other nations in return for domestic market access.
4. Political front:
● India’s political landscape will need reforms. Traditional tools of welfare and governance have not worked well and the gap between the rich and poor have widened further.
● India’s political governance model needs greater decentralisation and federalism reforms to cater to widening divergence among States. The time has now come to move away from a ‘one nation one policy’ mindset.
● Stronger institutions are a necessary condition for greater decentralisation. Reforming public institutions with more powers, autonomy, resources and accountability is essential.
5. Economic front:
● India’s economic road map will have to factor in environmental concerns. It needs to move away from the monopolies model of private enterprise and create a new inclusive, employment-intensive economic development model.
6. Becoming a Rule maker and not just a rules taker:
● India should actively assert itself during the formulation process of world norms, from the environment to economics.
It is time to re-imagine India’s overall strategy and re-evaluate our normative policy framework. We need a holistic military, diplomatic, social and economic strategy.