INDIAN AGRICULTURE at 2047 - economy

INDIAN AGRICULTURE at 2047 - economy

NEWS: According to an analysis by ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP), India’s aggregate food demand is projected to exceed twice the current demand by 2047.

WHAT’S IN THE NEWS?

Major Findings:

  1. Increase in Population:

·         India aims to achieve developed nation status by 2047, marking 100 years of independence.

·         The projected population by then is around 1.6 billion, indicating significant demographic expansion.

·         Approximately 50% of this population is expected to reside in urban areas, implying rapid urbanisation and increasing pressure on urban infrastructure, services, and food supply chains.

  1. Increase in Demand:

·         Demand for nutrient-dense foods—especially horticultural (fruits, vegetables) and animal-based products (dairy, eggs, meat)—is projected to increase 3 to 4 times.

·         This shift reflects rising incomes, urban dietary changes, and growing awareness of nutrition.

  1. Land Shrinking:

·         Agricultural land area is anticipated to reduce from the current 180 million hectares (mha) to 176 mha by 2047.

·         This reduction is due to urbanisation, industrialisation, and infrastructure expansion, which encroach upon cultivable land.

  1. Cropping Intensity:

·         Cropping intensity, which reflects how frequently land is cultivated within a year, is likely to rise from 156% to 170%.

·         This means more intensive land use will be necessary to maintain food supply with less land.

  1. Structural Changes in Agriculture:

·         Agriculture’s share in the national income is expected to fall from 18% to 8%, signifying economic transition toward industry and services.

·         Average landholding size may shrink from around 1 hectare to just 0.6 hectares, resulting in increased marginalisation of farming.

  1. Production Diversification:

·         Farmers are expected to increasingly shift to less land-intensive activities such as livestock rearing and fisheries.

·         These activities can yield better returns per unit area and are more resilient to climate risks.

  1. Livestock and Fisheries Output:

·         The livestock sector’s share in agricultural output is likely to grow from 31% to 39%.

·         The fisheries sector's contribution may rise from 7% to 10%, indicating a strategic role in meeting future protein demands and export potential.

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture:

  1. Productivity Losses:

·         Over the last 50 years, extreme climate events like droughts, floods, and heatwaves have reduced agricultural productivity growth by around 25%.

·         This trend threatens future food security and income stability for farmers.

  1. Low Water Use Efficiency:

·         India’s water use efficiency in agriculture stands at 35–40%, which is significantly lower than countries like China, Brazil, and the US.

·         This inefficiency leads to excessive groundwater depletion and vulnerability during droughts.

  1. Rising Agricultural Water Demand:

·         Agriculture currently uses about 83% of the country's total freshwater supply.

·         By 2047, agricultural water demand is expected to rise by 18%, further stressing India’s already overburdened water resources.

 

Agri-Food Systems – Explained:

  1. Definition:

·         Agri-food systems encompass the full spectrum of food-related processes—from farm production to consumption to waste disposal.

  1. Key Components:

·         Production: Includes all forms of primary food generation—cropping, animal husbandry, fishing, and forestry.

·         Processing: Involves converting raw food items into edible or value-added forms (e.g., dairy processing, grain milling).

·         Distribution: Encompasses storage, transportation, wholesale and retail, ensuring food reaches markets and consumers.

·         Consumption: Refers to dietary choices, nutrition levels, and food-related health outcomes.

·         Waste Management: Deals with post-harvest losses, spoiled or uneaten food, and eco-friendly disposal practices.

 

Policy Recommendations:

  1. Efficient Water Resource Management:

·         Promote rainwater harvesting, check dams, and groundwater recharge for long-term sustainability.

·         A 10% increase in water use efficiency could expand irrigation to an additional 14 million hectares, improving productivity.

  1. Power Sector Reforms:

·         Current universal power subsidies promote inefficient groundwater use.

·         Redirecting subsidies to small/marginal farmers and promoting solar pumps can conserve energy and water.

  1. Fertiliser Sector Reforms:

·         Fertiliser subsidies disproportionately favour nitrogen (urea), disrupting soil health and crop yields.

·         Linking subsidies with Soil Health Card recommendations and adopting nano-fertilizers can ensure balanced nutrient use.

  1. Climate Change Mitigation:

·         Integrated, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices—such as drought-tolerant varieties, efficient irrigation, and conservation agriculture—are crucial.

·         Use of remote sensing, weather modelling, and drones can improve disaster preparedness and crop insurance schemes.

  1. Investment in Agricultural R&D:

·         India’s current AgGDP investment in R&D is just 0.43%, compared to the global average of 0.93%.

·         Greater public investment, along with private and philanthropic sector participation, is needed to drive innovation.

  1. Crop Planning and Diversification:

·         Diversification into high-value crops should match regional resources and market demand.

·         Support infrastructure like cold chains, storage facilities, and credit access are essential to enable profitable diversification.

  1. De-stressing Agricultural Employment:

·         Agriculture suffers from disguised unemployment due to low non-farm rural opportunities.

·         Encouraging MSMEs, rural agro-industries, and agri-startups can create value chains and employment beyond farming.

  1. Strengthening Market Infrastructure and Value Chains:

·         Despite increasing production, many farmers lack access to competitive, efficient markets.

·         Strengthening Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs), promoting digital platforms, and enabling contract farming can bridge this gap.

 

Conclusion:

  • India’s agri-food systems face interlinked challenges—land and water constraints, climate vulnerabilities, structural transitions, and growing demand.
  • Solutions require a multi-pronged approach involving technological innovation, institutional strengthening, better incentives, and sustainable resource use to ensure future food and economic security.

Source: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/agriculture/reallocate-resources-from-traditional-staples-to-more-diverse-ones-icar-policy-paper