POPULATION
AND POLITICAL REPRESENTATION IN INDIA – POLITY
News: Retribution for the south, accolade
for the north
What's
in the news?
●
The article tries to analyze how changes
in population geography have a lasting impact on the political and economic
geography in Indian federal democracy.
Key
takeaways:
●
Article
81
of the Indian Constitution mandates that Lok Sabha constituencies should be
equal in size based on population.
●
The freezing of the number of
constituencies for each state, determined by the 1971 Census, was extended
through constitutional amendments.
●
If the current principle of equalizing
constituency size by population is enforced, the southern states would lose
seats, while the northern states would gain, leading to a shift in political
representation.
Population
size and Political Representation:
1.
Lok Sabha Seats and Article 81:
●
Article 81 of the Indian Constitution says
that Lok Sabha seats should be allocated based on population size, aiming for
equal representation across constituencies.
2.
Decisions Based on Old Census:
●
Historically, seats were distributed based
on the 1971 Census data, which, through amendments like the 42nd in 1976 and
the 84th in 2001, was intended to be utilized until at least the first census
after 2026.
3.
Population Control Consequences:
●
Southern states in India, having
effectively controlled their populations, risk losing 23 seats if 2023
population projections are applied, while northern states might gain 37.
4.
Inequality in Representation:
●
MPs from northern states represent more
people (around 18 lakh) compared to those from southern states (around 16
lakh). However, interestingly, electing an MP requires only about 12 lakh
voters in both regions.
Issues
faced by Southern States now:
1.
Losing Representation:
●
The five southern states (Andhra Pradesh,
Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana) will witness a decrease of 23 seats,
while the Hindi-speaking northern states will gain 37 seats.
●
Consequently, the proportion of political
representation for the northern states will increase by 6.81%, while that of
the southern states will decline by 4.24%.
2.
Decreased Fiscal Share:
●
These states could also get a smaller
piece of the Union government’s tax revenue.
●
The share of five southern states dropped
from 21.1% to 15.8% from 2000-05 to 2021-26.
3.
Political Incentive:
●
Penalizing population control by reducing
representation and financial allocations might discourage states from
prioritizing such initiatives in the future.
4.
Societal Impact:
●
States which successfully implemented
population control through social development efforts, like the southern
states, might face unintended negative consequences, altering their societal
and economic development trajectories.
5.
Future Policy Dilemma:
●
This situation creates a policy challenge,
potentially impacting the federal structure and solidarity by possibly inciting
regional disparities and discontent among states.
WAY
FORWARD:
1.
Maintain Seat Freeze:
●
It’s essential to persist with the freeze
on Lok Sabha seat distribution, as per the 1971 Census figures, until all
states stabilize their populations, to ensure fair representation and avoid
penalizing southern states, like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
2.
Incentive for Population Control:
●
Encourage population management in all
states by ensuring policies don’t penalize those, like Kerala or Tamil Nadu,
which have effectively controlled their populations through both family planning
and social development.
3.
Fair Fiscal Distribution:
●
Reconsider fiscal distribution formulas to
ensure that states are not financially penalized for controlling their
populations. For instance, protecting the declining share, such as the drop
from 21.1% to 15.8% in five southern states from 2000-05 to 2021-26, in Union
government’s tax revenue is pivotal.
4.
Promote Equitable Representation:
●
Implement systems that ensure more equal
representation per elector across both northern and southern states,
maintaining the democratic principle of “one person, one vote.”
5.
Social and Economic Development:
●
Encourage policies that promote balanced
social and economic development in all states, ensuring uniform progression and
stability across India.
Family planning and
population control are the stated policies of the national and regional
governments in India. States that have implemented these policies and
effectively controlled their population should not be penalised through reduced
political representation after delimitation in subsequent periods.