IMD REPORT: GEOGRAPHY
NEWS: Warm February could hurt wheat, fruit,
vegetables, says IMD
WHAT’S IN THE NEWS?
The IMD forecasts a warmer-than-normal
February 2025 in northern India with below-normal rainfall, potentially
impacting Rabi crops like wheat, mustard, and horticultural produce. Weak La
Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean are contributing to these climatic
anomalies.
1. IMD’s February 2025 Weather Forecast
- Above-normal
temperatures: Expected across northern India due to
changing atmospheric patterns.
- Below-normal
rainfall: Expected in the northern states, impacting
soil moisture and crop health.
- Night
temperatures:
- Above
normal in most regions of India.
- Near
normal in northwest India & southern peninsula.
- Above
normal in most regions.
- Below
normal in parts of west-central and southern India.
2. Impact on Agriculture
A. Wheat (India’s Major Rabi Crop)
- Life
cycle: Sown in October–December, harvested February–April.
- Affected
states:
- Punjab,
Haryana, Rajasthan: High temperatures reduce
grain filling, leading to lower yield.
- Uttar
Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh: Less impact due to
possible rainfall, which can mitigate temperature rise.
- Flowering
& grain-filling stage (February–March).
- If
temperatures rise above 25°C, grain size and quality reduce
significantly.
- Lower
yields could increase domestic wheat prices.
- May
impact government procurement and food security under schemes like
PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana.
B. Mustard (Edible Oil Crop) & Chickpea
(Pulses)
- Mustard
and chickpea mature between February–April.
- Rising
temperatures lead to early maturity, affecting grain size &
oil content.
- Mustard:
Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana.
- Chickpea:
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan.
- India
depends on imports for edible oil—low mustard yield could increase
import dependency.
- Chickpea
is a staple pulse; reduced output can cause higher market
prices.
C. Horticultural Crops (Apples & Stone
Fruits)
- Effect
of warm temperatures:
- Early
flowering in apples & stone fruits like peaches, plums,
apricots.
- Poor
fruit setting leading to lower quality & yield.
- Major
producing states: Jammu & Kashmir,
Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand.
- Economic
impact: Reduced supply may increase fruit prices in
domestic markets.
3. Climatic Context – Weak La Niña Conditions
A. What is La Niña?
- Definition: A
phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affecting global
climate.
- Key
Feature:
- Stronger
trade winds (east to west) push warm waters to the western
Pacific.
- Cooler
waters upwell in the eastern Pacific, leading to below-normal
sea surface temperatures.
B. La Niña’s Impact on India
- Normally,
La Niña brings cooler temperatures & higher rainfall.
- However,
weak La Niña conditions this year are leading to:
- Less
rainfall in northern India.
- Above-normal
temperatures affecting agriculture.
- Possible
heatwaves in March & April.
4. Crop-Specific Climate & Soil
Requirements
A. Wheat
- Temperature:
10°C–25°C.
- Soil:
Well-drained loamy/clayey soil.
- Major
States: Uttar Pradesh > Punjab > Haryana.
- India’s
Rank: 2nd largest wheat producer globally.
B. Mustard
- Temperature:
10°C–25°C.
- Soil:
Well-drained sandy loam.
- Major
States: Rajasthan > Uttar Pradesh > Haryana.
- Significance: Primary
edible oil source in India.
C. Chickpea
- Temperature:
10°C–25°C.
- Soil:
Well-drained loamy.
- Major
States: Madhya Pradesh > Maharashtra > Rajasthan.
- Significance: Vital
protein source in India.
D. Apple & Stone Fruits
- Temperature:
21°C–24°C (cold winters essential).
- Soil:
Well-drained loamy soil with high organic content.
- Major
States: Jammu & Kashmir > Himachal Pradesh >
Uttarakhand.
- Significance: Key horticultural
crops supporting local economies.
Source: https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/warm-february-could-hurt-wheat-fruit-vegetables-says-imd/article69164842.ece